US natgas slips to one-week low on lower demand outlook, storm impact
Aug 5 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 1% to a one-week low on Monday on forecasts for lower demand over the next two weeks, while traders assessed the potential impact from Hurricane Debby, which could lead to lower demand for the fuel.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 1.79 cents, or about 1%, to $1.95 per million British thermal units at 10:05 a.m. EDT (1405 GMT).
"There's going to be power outages from the storm that could go into many state and it could also cool down the temperatures, so that is one of the reasons why we're seeing some pressure here in the natural gas ... and you also have to consider the fact that stock markets are melting down amid a slowdown in economy; I think it's also taking its toll on the mood of the market," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.
Hurricane Debby made landfall as a Category 1 storm in the Big Bend region of Florida's Gulf Coast on Monday morning and began a slow crawl across the state. More than 280,000 homes and businesses in Florida were left without electricity as Debby slammed into the state's Gulf Coast, according to data from PowerOutage.us. FBOX/
"The hurricane did little to impact production and for exports, as it seemed to miss the key areas, so now it looks more of a threat to the demand side then the supply side," Flynn added.
Financial firm LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 110.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 105.2 bcfd next week.
Dutch and British wholesale gas prices extended losses amid geopolitical concerns due to conflict in the Middle East and amid falls in global equity markets. The declines remain smaller than those recorded by global equities markets, as the market was supported by stronger Norwegian supply and as temperature remain above seasonal norms for the first half of August. NG/EU
Wall Street looked set to plunge at the open as fears of the United States tipping into recession following weak economic data last week rippled through global markets. .N
Meanwhile, Cheniere Energy LNG.N agreed to supply 0.5 million tonnes per annum of liquefied natural gas to a subsidiary of Galp Energia GALP.LS for 20 years, as deliveries are expected to begin in the early 2030s but are dependent on the approval for an additional liquefaction unit (Train Eight) for Cheniere's Sabine Pass Liquefaction Expansion Project.
Week ended Aug 2 Forecast | Week ended July 26 Actual | Year ago Aug 2 | Five-year average Aug 2 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +30 | +18 | +25 | +38 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,279 | 3,249 | 2,022 | 2,846 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 15.2% | 15.7% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 1.89 | 1.98 | 2.65 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.20 | 11.60 | 11.21 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.52 | 12.49 | 12.43 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 225 | 242 | 221 | 198 | 192 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 231 | 246 | 222 | 200 | 196 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 102.5 | 104.0 | 104.0 | 102.3 | 96.3 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.7 | 8.0 | 7.8 | N/A | 7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 110.3 | 112.1 | 111.8 | N/A | 103.7 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.3 | 6.4 | 6.9 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 11.8 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 7.7 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
U.S. Residential | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 47.9 | 51.9 | 46.13 | 48.3 | 43.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.7 | 21.9 | 21.8 | 21.3 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 84.9 | 89.6 | 83.7 | 84.8 | 80.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 105.8 | 110.7 | 105.2 | N/A | 96.1 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 77 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Aug 9 | Week ended Aug 2 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 5 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 49 | 46 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 19 | 17 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 16 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 1.89 | 1.95 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.63 | 1.70 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.39 | 3.61 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.48 | 1.44 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.90 | 1.82 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.75 | 1.82 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.75 | 2.90 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.12 | 0.02 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.82 | 0.50 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 53.50 | 95.20 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 45.00 | 33.25 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 45.00 | 96.00 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 85.67 | 105.50 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 125.83 | 73.00 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 62.50 | 71.25 |
Reporting by Rahul Paswan and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan Oatis
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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