US natgas prices slip more than 2% ahead of storage report
By Brijesh Patel
Aug 8 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 2% on Thursday on forecasts for less hotter weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously projected, ahead of a federal report expected to show last week's build was below normal.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 5.3 cents, or about 2.5%, to $2.06 per million British thermal units at 9:47 a.m. EDT (1337 GMT).
"The market has been kind of drifting lower over the past month or so because the lack of any kind of sustained significant hot weather across the country," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy at StoneX Financial.
"From a fundamental perspective you've got a high level of inventory which is bearish on the market and but the injections are going in a weekly basis on the low side so that could be considered kind of bullish."
Financial firm LSEG estimated 214 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks, slightly lower from 220 CDDs estimated on Wednesday. The normal for this time of year is 189 CDDs.
Cooling degree days, used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius).
Analysts forecast U.S. utilities likely added 26 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas into storage during the week ended Aug. 2. That compared with an injection of 25 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2019-2023) average increase of 38 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL
If correct, that will leave gas stocks about 15% above normal for this time of year.
LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 states had risen to an average of 103.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, up from 103.4 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
Major U.S. natural gas producers are preparing to further curtail production in the second half of 2024, after prices sank nearly 40% over the past two months.
Meanwhile, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, to rise to 109.7 bcfd this week from 105.8 bcfd last week, before declining to 104.1 bcfd next week.
Meanwhile, Dutch wholesale gas prices mostly edged higher on Thursday morning as continued concern over possible disruption to Russian supply via Ukraine provided support despite reduced demand from power plants owing to strong wind power output. NG/EU
Week ended Aug 2 Forecast | Week ended July 26 Actual | Year ago Aug 2 | Five-year average Aug 2 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +26 | +18 | +25 | +38 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,275 | 3,249 | 2,022 | 2,846 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 15.1% | 15.7% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.11 | 2.65 | 2.66 | 3.60 | |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 12.21 | 12.35 | 11.21 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.53 | 12.45 | 12.43 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 8 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 214 | 220 | 224 | 196 | 189 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 222 | 227 | 225 | 198 | 193 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 102.5 | 103.0 | 103.1 | 102.3 | 96.3 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.7 | 8.0 | 7.8 | N/A | 7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 110.3 | 110.9 | 110.9 | N/A | 103.7 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.3 | 7.0 | 7.2 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 11.8 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 7.7 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
U.S. Residential | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 47.9 | 50.7 | 44.9 | 48.3 | 43.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.7 | 21.9 | 21.8 | 21.3 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 84.9 | 88.2 | 82.5 | 84.8 | 80.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 105.8 | 109.7 | 104.1 | N/A | 96.1 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 78 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Aug 9 | Week ended Aug 2 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 5 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 48 | 46 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 19 | 17 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 16 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 1.96 | 1.83 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.35 | 1.37 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.05 | 3.28 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.35 | 1.28 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.75 | 1.73 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.50 | 1.43 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.33 | 2.59 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.15 | 1.05 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.75 | 0.64 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 32.75 | 29.50 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 39.25 | 36.50 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 34.75 | 75.75 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 76.75 | 79.00 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 54.00 | 80.00 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 40.00 | 48.25 |
Reporting by Brijesh Patel and Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; editing by David Evans
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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