US natgas prices slide 2% on lower demand forecasts, storm heads to Florida
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
Sept 24 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2%on Tuesday on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Another factor weighing on gas prices was the latest forecasts for Tropical Storm Helene to miss most of the producing regions in the western and central Gulf of Mexico as it strengthens into a hurricane on Wednesday and hit the Florida Panhandle late Thursday.
Over the past few days, severaloil companies paused some production ahead of Helene.But some firms, likeShell SHEL.L, started restoring oil and gas production as the forecasted storm movements shifted away from their offshore platforms.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.2 cents, or 2.4%, to settle at $2.551 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).On Monday, the contract closed at its highest level since June 27.
With front-month gas prices up about 27% over the past five weeks, the premium of futures for November over October NGV24-X24 fell to just 24cents per mmBtu, the lowest since September 2022. October is the current front-month.
Analysts have said gas prices should trade at lower levels during the April-October summer cooling season than the November-March winter heating season since U.S. demand for gas peaks during the winter.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to an average of 102.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August.
But on a daily basis, output was on track to drop by around 3.2 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary four-month low of 99.6 bcfd. Analysts, however, noted that preliminary data was often revised later in the day.
Analysts said the recent output reductions were partly due to producers curtailing Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production ahead of Helene and lower flows on aNatural Gas Pipeline Co (NGPL) pipe in Texas after a force majeure event at a compressor.
With milder autumn weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will slide from 98.5 bcfd this week to 96.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have eased to an average of 12.8 bcfd so far in September, down from 12.9 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
That reduction was due mostly to the planned Sept. 20 shutdown of Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland for around three weeks of annual maintenance.
In other LNG news, a tanker docked for the past month at Venture Global LNG's Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana left by Tuesday morning, according to data provider LSEG.
Energy analysts said that was likely a sign Plaquemines was getting closer to producing and exporting its own LNG.
Week ended Sep 20 Forecast | Week ended Sep 13 Actual | Year ago Sep 20 | Five-year average Sep 20 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +54 | +58 | +82 | +88 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,499 | 3,445 | 3,333 | 3,259 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 7.4% | 8.6% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.62 | 2.61 | 2.70 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.65 | 11.79 | 11.44 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.21 | 12.97 | 13.92 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 27 | 32 | 30 | 54 | 73 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 100 | 103 | 105 | 93 | 76 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 127 | 135 | 135 | 147 | 149 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 101.9 | 102.0 | 102.4 | 103.5 | 96.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 7.7 | 7.6 | N/A | 7.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 109.9 | 109.7 | 110.0 | N/A | 103.6 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.2 | 6.6 | 7.1 | N/A | 6.0 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.6 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 8.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
U.S. Residential | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 39.9 | 39.9 | 36.4 | 37.0 | 36.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.8 | 21.9 | 22.0 | 21.6 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 77.6 | 77.8 | 74.8 | 74.7 | 80.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 99.6 | 98.5 | 96.4 | N/A | 90.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 77 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Sep 27 | Week ended Sep 20 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 46 | 46 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 17 | 16 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.40 | 2.20 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.56 | 1.15 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.92 | 2.43 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.56 | 1.17 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.27 | 2.05 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.95 | 1.48 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.33 | 1.89 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.57 | 0.55 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.15 | 0.05 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 34.00 | 33.00 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 44.00 | 37.63 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 32.25 | 29.50 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 75.00 | 56.50 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 35.00 | 17.00 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 34.25 | 15.25 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao and David Gregorio
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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