FX slightly weaker as rate decisions come into focus
PRAGUE, July 29 (Reuters) -Central Europe's currencies mostly eased on Monday in light trading, with focus turned to a Federal Reserve meeting this week along with a Czech central bank meeting likely to confirm slower interest rate cuts.
The Fed is widely expected to set the stage for a September rate cut. The start of U.S. interest rate reductions would generally benefit emerging market currencies, like in central Europe, due to dollar outflows.
"In our opinion, the Fed meeting itself does not have to cause much volatility, because the data published so far, as well as the communication of Fed members, suggest no change in interest rates at the next meeting and maintaining expectations for a cut in September," Bank Millennium said in a note.
Currencies gave up some gains seen at the end of last week on Monday. The Polish zloty EURPLN= led losses, falling 0.3% to 4.2875 to the euro but was still near multi-year highs around the 4.25 level.
In the Czech Republic, the crown EURCZK= hovered around 25.37 per euro after touching a five-month low of 25.453 last week.
Markets are watching whether the Czech National Bank will shift its easing pace down to standard 25-basis-point steps when it meets on Thursday, following four straight 50-bp cuts.
The bank had signalled a slowdown after its June meeting but below-forecast inflation and a vice-governor's comments on not ruling out another 50-bp move have raised some uncertainty. Analysts in a Reuters poll on Friday, though, all forecast a 25-bp cut.
"We see a 25-basis point cut to 4.50% as the more likely scenario, due to the persistent cautiousness of the majority of the board," Erste Group Bank said.
Central banks in the European Union's emerging east have all eased monetary policy since last year, in varying degrees. Rates are still falling in Hungary, while they are on pause in Poland and Romania has only started its easing cycle.
Hungary's forint EURHUF= fell 0.1% to 391.60 the euro to start the week, and Romania's leu EURRON= also drifted.
Preliminary Hungarian and Czech gross domestic product data from the second quarter is due on Tuesday, which will give more clues on how a consumer-driven rebound is progressing. Lower inflation has boosted households' spending, after the surge in consumer prices of recent years.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1233 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.3700 | 25.3620 | -0.03% | -2.64% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 391.6000 | 391.2500 | -0.09% | -2.15% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2875 | 4.2740 | -0.31% | +1.33% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9719 | 4.9711 | -0.02% | +0.05% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.0300 | 117.0500 | +0.02% | +0.18% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1603.42 | 1597.8400 | +0.35% | +13.39% |
Budapest | .BUX | 73543.83 | 73174.10 | +0.51% | +21.32% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2409.47 | 2407.15 | +0.10% | +2.84% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 18538.25 | 18562.57 | -0.13% | +20.60% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.5640 | -0.0620 | +092bps | -4bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.6090 | -0.0440 | +132bps | -1bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.7360 | -0.0710 | +138bps | -2bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.0540 | 0.0150 | +241bps | +4bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.4260 | -0.0620 | +314bps | -2bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.6060 | -0.0510 | +325bps | +0bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 4.08 | 3.75 | 3.47 | 4.56 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.29 | 6.01 | 5.69 | 6.61 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.82 | 5.68 | 5.36 | 5.86 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** | |||||
Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest and Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw; Editing by Toby Chopra
For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/
Spot FX rates
Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX=
Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX=
Other news and reports
World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE
Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY
Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
Ativos relacionados
Últimas notícias
Isenção de Responsabilidade: As entidades do XM Group proporcionam serviço de apenas-execução e acesso à nossa plataforma online de negociação, permitindo a visualização e/ou uso do conteúdo disponível no website ou através deste, o que não se destina a alterar ou a expandir o supracitado. Tal acesso e uso estão sempre sujeitos a: (i) Termos e Condições; (ii) Avisos de Risco; e (iii) Termos de Responsabilidade. Este, é desta forma, fornecido como informação generalizada. Particularmente, por favor esteja ciente que os conteúdos da nossa plataforma online de negociação não constituem solicitação ou oferta para iniciar qualquer transação nos mercados financeiros. Negociar em qualquer mercado financeiro envolve um nível de risco significativo de perda do capital.
Todo o material publicado na nossa plataforma de negociação online tem apenas objetivos educacionais/informativos e não contém — e não deve ser considerado conter — conselhos e recomendações financeiras, de negociação ou fiscalidade de investimentos, registo de preços de negociação, oferta e solicitação de transação em qualquer instrumento financeiro ou promoção financeira não solicitada direcionadas a si.
Qual conteúdo obtido por uma terceira parte, assim como o conteúdo preparado pela XM, tais como, opiniões, pesquisa, análises, preços, outra informação ou links para websites de terceiras partes contidos neste website são prestados "no estado em que se encontram", como um comentário de mercado generalizado e não constitui conselho de investimento. Na medida em que qualquer conteúdo é construído como pesquisa de investimento, deve considerar e aceitar que este não tem como objetivo e nem foi preparado de acordo com os requisitos legais concebidos para promover a independência da pesquisa de investimento, desta forma, deve ser considerado material de marketing sob as leis e regulações relevantes. Por favor, certifique-se que leu e compreendeu a nossa Notificação sobre Pesquisa de Investimento não-independente e o Aviso de Risco, relativos à informação supracitada, os quais podem ser acedidos aqui.