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Benign CPI data boost rate cut hopes, weigh on Hungarian forint



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By Krisztina Than

BUDAPEST, Sept 10 (Reuters) -Hungary's forint slipped after lower-than-expected inflation data for August rekindled market expectations that the central bank could resume policy easing at its meeting later this month.

The Hungarian and Czech central banks have been the most active among central European peers in easing policy since last year but are beginning to slow or possibly pause their steady rate cuts.

Before deciding to keep rates flat in August, Hungary's central bank had delivered 15 consecutive cuts totalling 1,125 basis points. The main rate stands at 6.75%.

Data on Tuesday kept the option of further cuts open - along with pressure from the government to ease policy more - as it showed year-on-year inflation eased to 3.4% in August from 4.1% in July, coming in below a Reuters poll forecast of 3.6%.

It was the lowest rate since February 2021. But core inflation still came in at 4.6%.

An FX dealer in Budapest said the forint's weakness was mostly due to domestic factors, but a strong dollar did not help either.

"The forint is weaker due to comments from policymakers in the past days on the change expected at the helm of the central bank, plus the August CPI data indicates that the central bank may cut interest rates further, which does not help either," the dealer said.

"This is a multi-factor story, but I would say it is predominantly domestic factors that are weighing on the forint."

Economy Minister Marton Nagy told Inforadio late on Monday that the Hungarian bank had "won the fight with inflation", saying too restrictive a policy would hurt the economy.

The forint EURHUF=, whose weakness in recent months has been a constraint on the central bank, eased 0.1% to 397.40 to the euro by 0730 GMT on Tuesday before regaining some ground, while other currencies in Central Europe firmed slightly.

Czech data showed on Tuesday that inflation stagnated at 2.2% year-on-year last month despite market and central bank expectations of a drop. But analysts said the data would not sour policymakers on more rate cuts.

"We believe the central bank board has space to continue its cycle of rate cuts given the favourable inflation development and still unflattering performance in the economy," Raiffeisen said, forecasting a 25-bp cut at the September meeting and subsequent meetings this year.

The crown EURCZK= slightly backed away from a test of the psychological 25 per euro level after the data, trading weaker on the day.

Elsewhere, the Polish zloty EURPLN= and Romanian leu EURRON= were both little changed.



CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 0930 CET





CURRENCIES






Latest

Previous

Daily

Change



trade

close

change

in 2024

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.0380

25.0550

+0.07%

-1.34%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

397.4000

397.0000

-0.10%

-3.58%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2755

4.2790

+0.08%

+1.61%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9735

4.9740

+0.01%

+0.02%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9500

117.0100

+0.05%

+0.25%

Note: daily change

calculated from


1800 CET










Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




close

change

in 2024

Prague

.PX

1585.62

1588.7500

-0.20%

+12.14%

Budapest

.BUX

72329.29

72075.48

+0.35%

+19.32%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2336.23

2330.89

+0.23%

-0.29%

Bucharest

.BETI

17634.23

17477.86

+0.89%

+14.72%











Spread

Daily





vs Bund

change in

Czech Republic





spread

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.2820

-0.0050

+105bps

-2bps

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.5170

0.0510

+147bps

+4bps

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.6960

0.0120

+151bps

+0bps

Poland






2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.6930

-0.0250

+246bps

-4bps

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.1090

0.0300

+306bps

+2bps

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.3320

0.0240

+315bps

+1bps








FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS






3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.85

3.49

3.22

4.33

Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.45

5.95

5.37

6.49

Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.77

5.39

4.85

5.86

Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices




**************************************************************











Reporting by Krisztina Than in Budapest and Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne

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