Will Australia’s labor data tempt the RBA to hike again? – Forex News Preview
At its latest gathering, the RBA raised interest rates by 25bps, stunning investors who were expecting officials to stay sidelined for the second time in a row. Policymakers decided to hike due to stubbornly high services inflation and faster-than-expected rental increases, adding that more hikes may be required depending on how the economy and the inflation outlook evolve.
In the minutes of that meeting, released today, it was revealed that board members were considering staying sidelined for another month, but the inflation risks convinced them that a hike was a more appropriate decision.
Having said all that though, despite officials saying that more hikes may be required, and despite Australia’s consumer prices increasing 6.3% year-on-year in March, market participants are currently assigning an 87% probability for no change at the upcoming meeting in June, with the remaining 13% pointing to another quarter-point hike.
Perhaps that’s due to inflation being in a downtrend since December, when it hit 8.4% y/y, and due to Chinese data suggesting that after the post-reopening boost, the world’s second largest economy and Australia’s main trading partner is losing momentum.
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/ChinavsAustralia_160523.png)
Beyond June, investors are pricing in around a 30% chance for a quarter-point hike in July, while they are evenly split for August and September. So, as they try to better understand how the RBA could proceed later this year, they may pay attention to the wage price index for Q1 and the employment report for April, due out during the Asian sessions Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
Wages are forecast to have continued to accelerate for the 9th consecutive quarter, which could add to concerns about inflation staying elevated, and although the employment change is expected to show that the economy added less than half the jobs it gained in March, the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 3.5%, just a tick above its record low of 3.4%.
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/WagesvsPMI_160523.png)
A tight labor market and rising wage growth, which according to the S&P Global services PMI, is contributing to accelerating price pressures for firms in Australia, could prompt investors to price in a higher probability for a hike during the summer months.
Aussie may be destined to stay weak for a while longerThis could prove positive for the Australian dollar, but its upside may be capped by market participants’ concerns over the outlook of the Chinese economy. With the Fed expected to proceed with nearly three quarter-point cuts by the end of the year, the picture in ausie/dollar may not be so clear, but with the ECB seen hiking by another 50bps, euro/aussie may be destined to continue its uptrend for a while longer, even if the Australian currency temporarily benefits by this week’s data.
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/EURAUDvsyields_160523.png)
Euro/aussie has been in a sliding mode since April 26, when it hit resistance at 1.6790, a territory that threw the bulls out of the game back in October 2020 as well. Nonetheless, the pair remains above the uptrend line drawn from the low of August 26, which keeps the bigger picture positive.
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/EURAUDDaily_160523.png)
Even if the slide extends beyond last week’s low of 1.6135, the buyers could still step back into the action from near the uptrend line and perhaps stage another march towards the 1.6790 zone. If they manage to break that zone, they could then put the 1.7190 area on their radar, which offered resistance back in early May 2020.
The outlook could start darkening if the bears are able to break the aforementioned uptrend line, but also the 1.5870 support. Should this happen, they may get encouraged to dive towards the 1.5655 territory, marked by the inside swing high of February 6, the break of which could see scope for extensions towards the 1.5260 area, which acted as a floor between November 4 and January 30.Ativos relacionados
Últimas notícias
Isenção de Responsabilidade: As entidades do XM Group proporcionam serviço de apenas-execução e acesso à nossa plataforma online de negociação, permitindo a visualização e/ou uso do conteúdo disponível no website ou através deste, o que não se destina a alterar ou a expandir o supracitado. Tal acesso e uso estão sempre sujeitos a: (i) Termos e Condições; (ii) Avisos de Risco; e (iii) Termos de Responsabilidade. Este, é desta forma, fornecido como informação generalizada. Particularmente, por favor esteja ciente que os conteúdos da nossa plataforma online de negociação não constituem solicitação ou oferta para iniciar qualquer transação nos mercados financeiros. Negociar em qualquer mercado financeiro envolve um nível de risco significativo de perda do capital.
Todo o material publicado na nossa plataforma de negociação online tem apenas objetivos educacionais/informativos e não contém — e não deve ser considerado conter — conselhos e recomendações financeiras, de negociação ou fiscalidade de investimentos, registo de preços de negociação, oferta e solicitação de transação em qualquer instrumento financeiro ou promoção financeira não solicitada direcionadas a si.
Qual conteúdo obtido por uma terceira parte, assim como o conteúdo preparado pela XM, tais como, opiniões, pesquisa, análises, preços, outra informação ou links para websites de terceiras partes contidos neste website são prestados "no estado em que se encontram", como um comentário de mercado generalizado e não constitui conselho de investimento. Na medida em que qualquer conteúdo é construído como pesquisa de investimento, deve considerar e aceitar que este não tem como objetivo e nem foi preparado de acordo com os requisitos legais concebidos para promover a independência da pesquisa de investimento, desta forma, deve ser considerado material de marketing sob as leis e regulações relevantes. Por favor, certifique-se que leu e compreendeu a nossa Notificação sobre Pesquisa de Investimento não-independente e o Aviso de Risco, relativos à informação supracitada, os quais podem ser acedidos aqui.