Whilst most cryptocurrencies have been trading flat over the last month, Ripple (XRP) has enjoyed impressive gains, surging by about 70% from its September lows. The renewed interest in XRP comes on the back of the recent win by the company behind it - Ripple Labs Inc. – against the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in a long-running legal dispute. But with positive sentiment still in short supply in the wider cryptocurrency sphere as well as in the broader financial markets, XRP’s uptrend has suffered a setback, while Bitcoin is revisiting the $19,000 support level.

Is an end to Ripple’s legal battle in sight?

XRP has been outperforming other digital currencies in recent weeks as hopes that its parent company will succeed in getting a US district court to drop the SEC’s case against it fuelled a powerful rally. The SEC is suing Ripple for allegedly selling $1.3 billion worth of XRP in an unregistered securities offering in 2020. Ripple’s defence is that the transactions cannot be treated the same way as for other securities such as stocks because XRP is a virtual currency.

Signs that the legal battle is going in Ripple’s favour first started to appear on September 18 when both the company and the SEC filed motions with the court for summary judgement to speed up the process and avoid a full trial. But the SEC’s legal argument began to crumble on September 29 when the judge allowed the release of concealed documents relating to a former division director at the SEC, William Hinman. The documents in question relate to a speech by Hinman where he was quoted as saying that Bitcoin and Ethereum are not securities, raising question marks as to why XRP should be treated differently by the regulator.

Should the judge decide to dismiss the case, it could accelerate Ripple’s growth in the digital payments industry. Ripple’s own blockchain network has been gaining popularity lately despite XRP getting delisted from several crypto exchanges following the SEC’s lawsuit. But would an even faster adoption of Ripple’s payment services be enough to spur a more durable rally?

XRP bulls pause for breath

The latest upswing has stalled at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-June downtrend around $0.5258. A break above this barrier is needed to take the price past the 50% Fibonacci of $0.5995 and towards the 61.8% Fibonacci of $0.6733. If the latter can be successfully overcome, XRP would have much stronger prospects for a longer-term recovery.

However, the near-term momentum has turned negative and the price is barely being propped up by the 20-day moving average (MA) for support at $0.4880. If this support fails, the 200- and 50-day MAs stand ready to defend the price from further falls.

Bitcoin stuck in a flat range

But despite some signs of life in Ripple, other cryptocurrencies continue to be stuck in their holding patterns. Bitcoin slipped below its 20-day MA this week and is struggling to hold onto the $19,000 handle. A bearish breakout is subsequently looking increasingly likely and the momentum indicators also point to more negative pressures.

This lacklustre trading is partly due to the general risk-off mood that’s hammered stocks and other risk assets since mid-August. The next inflation report out of the United States due Thursday could be quite significant in shifting sentiment. With investors ramping up bets of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, a softer-than-expected CPI reading could spark a relief rally, with Bitcoin and other cryptos benefiting too.

Otherwise, it will be difficult for Bitcoin not to breach the floor of the current range at $18,000 in the near future.