Commodities' volatility jumps due to geopolitics – Volatility Watch

21Maio2024245 GMT- Achilleas Georgolopoulos, Stefanos Oikonomidis

• Euro/dollar volatility eases aggressively

• Volatility in gold and silver skyrockets

• US equities enjoy low volatility amidst weekly gains

Euro/dollar volatility has dropped aggressively as the market is adjusting to a quieter data calendar that nevertheless includes a plethora of Fed speakers. Similarly, volatility in yen crosses remains moderate as market participants, especially in dollar/yen, appear unwilling to further provoke the BoJ and risk significant losses.

On the contrary, volatility in the commodities space has gone through the roof. While oil price volatility has eased further despite the latest developments in Iran, both gold and silver have seen a massive jump in volatility and hence, a much higher possibility for stronger movements ahead.

Turning to risky assets, stock indices' volatility remains very low due to the lack of any major US data releases this week as the market continues to evaluate the chances of a Fed rate cut over the summer.

In the meantime, the halving-induced soft patch has probably run its course as bitcoin has surged higher, reclaiming the $70k level with its volatility jumping to the highest level of the past 30 days.