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Technical Analysis – EURUSD returns to its bullish race

EURUSD accelerates for the second consecutive day; hits the highest level since December 2023 Overbought signals detected but not confirmed yet; bulls need a close above 1.1045   EURUSD spiked to a new eight-month high of 1.1045 in the aftermath of a slightly weaker-than-expected US CPI report on Wednesday, extending Tuesday’s impressive rally which led the price above the tough trendline zone of 1.0950-1.0975. The 1.1045 area capped bullish actions a couple of times during 2023 a
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EURJPY is extending its rebound from 8-month lows But is there enough momentum to stretch the gains further? EURJPY is rising for a third straight session, extending the rebound from the August 5 low of 154.38 towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July-August slide. The 38.2% Fibonacci of 162.41 has seen some congestion in the past so overcoming it might not be so easy.
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Was the recent stock market slump an overreaction? – Stock Markets

US indices took a hit after a soft NFP report sparked recessions fears But risk sentiment rebounded, and investors eagerly bought the dip What events may disrupt the market's supposed immunity to downside risks?   V-shaped recovery July’s softer-than-expected NFP report sent shockwaves across all asset classes as fears that the US economy is on the brink of a recession emerged.
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Technical Analysis – Is gold ready to sail to an all-time high?

Gold moves sideways; faces resistance near 2,473 Technical signals are positive for a continuation to 2,500 ahead of CPI data Gold repeated its July bounce off the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the four-hour chart to re-examine the 2,473 resistance, which ceased upside pressures earlier this month. The bulls have been unsuccessful so far as the battle against the 2,473 barrier continues for the third consecutive day.
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EURGBP regains strength near 0.8540 after UK CPI surprises to the downside Short-term bias is skewed to the upside; confirmation awaited above 0.8560   EURGBP completed four green weeks since its plunge to a two-year low of 0.8381 and another one is in progress despite the break from a vertical rally that led the price to a three-and-a-half month high of 0.8623. Weaker-than-expected UK CPI data helped the pair to turn up near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April-July downleg
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Market Comment – Markets perk up as soft PPI sets the tone ahead of US CPI

Stocks perk up after soft US producer prices, all eyes now on CPI report Kiwi slumps after RBNZ cuts rates and signals more to come Pound also slips on weaker-than-expected UK inflation data Gold holds near record high as dollar skids, ME tensions mount Mood brightens ahead of US CPI data The rebound in equity markets gained further traction on Tuesday after US producer prices rose less than expected in July, raising hopes that today’s report on consumer prices will also sur
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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD hits a wall at the 200-day SMA

NZDUSD had been in a recovery mode since early August But 200-day SMA rejects advance after dovish RBNZ meeting Oscillators deteriorate, yet remain neutral-to-positive NZDUSD had been steadily regaining ground since the beginning of the month after finding its footing near the previous 2024 low of 0.5851 registered in April. However, the rebound paused at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), with the bears getting aided by a dovish RBNZ rate decision on Wednesday.
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Technical Analysis – USDJPY's sideways trading might end abruptly

USDJPY continues to hover around the 146 area Market participants are preparing for the US CPI release Momentum indicators remain mixed USDJPY continues to trade sideways, hovering around the 146.65-147.71 area for the fifth consecutive session. The bears are holding most of the gains of the sizeable correction from the early July high of 161.94, but have failed to take advantage of USD’s recent underperformance.
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Asian markets bounce back; eyes on local data, not just US CPI – Preview

Asian equities extend rebound ahead of key data Japanese GDP, Aussie jobs and Chinese indicators on the agenda Any upsets could roil the fragile sentiment A cautious rebound for stocks Stock markets in Asia have not been immune to the global selloff in August amid the unwinding of the yen carry trade and renewed fears about a US recession.
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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD at key resistance area ahead of the RBNZ

NZDUSD continues to climb higher Strong reaction following the recent correction Momentum indicators are turning bullish NZDUSD is trading higher again today, recording its ninth green candle in the past 11 sessions and cancelling out almost completely the recent correction. The overall sentiment has improved following last week’s rout with the market now focusing on the RBNZ meeting held during tomorrow’s Asian session.
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Technical Analysis – Palladium futures bounce off multi-year low

Palladium switches to recovery mode after hitting a more-than-seven-year low   Price trades within bearish channel; a break above 1,038 is needed Palladium futures experienced a flash drop to 808.99, violating by a slight margin their 2024 range to hit the lowest point since May 2017 earlier this month. The slide, however, was temporary and the price soon rotated higher again to resume its previous neutral profile above February’s trough of 856. The 920 region has been a hurdle

Market anxiety fades but volatility remains high – Volatility Watch

FX volatility smoothens a little bit as markets digest rate path repricing Volatility in commodities still high amid resurgence of geopolitical tensions Stock indices and Bitcoin still volatile while traders unwind bearish bets  Recession concerns from a weaker-than-expected NFP report two weeks ago have been fading, though they led to notable adjustments in expectations about major central banks' interest rate paths.
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD bulls don’t want to give up

EURUSD maintains sideways move as 1.0940 barrier blocks the way up Technical risk is on the positive side; eyes on 1.0970 too US PPI due at 12:30 GMT; FOMC member Bostic speaks today   EURUSD continues to face restrictions near the 1.0940 level and the resistance trendline from July 2023, which squeezed the price below a seven-month low of 1.1007 last week.
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Market Comment – Stocks edge up in calm before the storm

Stocks edge higher as gold benefits from geopolitical risks Pound rallies despite shock claimant count change French political issues return to the foreground RBNZ meeting could lead to significant kiwi underperformance Stocks edge higher as gold climb continues  It was another uneventful session yesterday with most stock indices continuing to recover from last week’s rout.
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD battles with 50-day SMA

GBPUSD advances after its bounce off 200-day SMA A potential breach of 50-day SMA could improve outlook Oscillators suggest strengthening positive momentum GBPUSD had been on the rise following its deflection at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on August 8. After four consecutive daily green candlesticks, the pair is on track to reclaim its 50-day SMA as the momentum indicators are hinting at an improving positive bias.
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The calmer markets could refocus on economic releases Rich UK data calendar could question BoE’s recent rate cut Wednesday’s headline inflation to see a small acceleration Pound is trying to recover from the BoE-induced underperformance Markets to refocus on data Following a rather eventful period, market participants are feeling slightly calmer at the beginning of this week and hence have the chance to refocus on the real economy.
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD rebounds near 200-SMA but not bullish yet

GBPUSD shifts to recovery mood but not out of the woods yet Technical indicators cannot confirm bullish bias A break above 1.2840 is needed to bring new buyers   GBPUSD rotated northwards after reaching its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the long-term support trendline from the 2021 trough near 1.2760. The latter initiated the ongoing bullish trend back in April and could assist the market once again.
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US 500 cash index rebounds from 3-month low The price jumps above 50-SMA on the 4-hour chart Momentum indicators are tilted to the upside The US 500 stock index (cash) came under severe selling pressure last week, dropping to its lowest level since early May. However, the price seems to be in a recovery mode since its recent bottom, with the bulls reclaiming the 50-period simple moving average (SMA).
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US CPI and retail sales data to test Fed rate cut bets - Preview

Investors panicked after NFP report But incoming data eased fears and rate cut bets Still, market pricing remains overly dovish Focus turns to US CPI on Wednesday and retail sales on Thursday, at 12:30 GMT Latest data ease recession fears Following the weaker-than-expected US employment report for July, market participants entered panic mode as recession fears resurfaced.
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Will the RBNZ start cutting rates sooner than later – Preview

RBNZ could keep interest rates steady but signal easing sooner rather than later Economic picture shows signs of stress but no red flags yet NZDUSD approaches 0.6060-0.6080 resistance territory   NZ employment data sway rate cut bets Q2 employment data from New Zealand exceeded the forecasts, leading to a reevaluation of rate cut expectations and a subsequent bullish movement in NZDUSD.
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