S&P 500 index eyes its record highs, gets set for Fed
U.S. equity index futures green: Nasdaq 100 up ~0.6%
Aug retail sales MM > estimate; ex-Autos MM < estimate
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.8%
Dollar, crude up slightly; bitcoin jumps >3%; gold slips
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~3.64%
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S&P 500 INDEX EYES ITS RECORD HIGHS, GETS SET FOR FED
The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI scored fresh record highs on Monday.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index .SPX has now risen six days in a row, and finds itself just shy of its record highs:
The S&P 500 index ended Monday at 5,633.09, putting it down just 0.33% from its 5,651.62 August 26 intraday high.
The benchmark index finished down 0.65% from its 5,669.67 July 16 intraday record high, and 0.6% from its 5,667.20 July 16 record closing high.
Thus, potential for a double top persists given that there are two peaks that occurred in succession (on July 16 and September 6), that were generally at the same price level. A double top pattern can signal that a prevailing uptrend is in the process of reversing over the short or longer-term.
Given this, traders will be keenly focused on the SPX price action that comes out of the Fed's highly anticipated decision on interest rates due Wednesday at 2 PM EDT.
On a forthright thrust to new highs, the S&P 500 would then face a log-scale resistance line from its 1929 high, which, on a monthly basis, now resides just over 6,000. This line is now roughly 6% above the current intraday record high.
On weakness, the 10-week moving average (WMA) is support around 5,515.
More importantly, traders would eye the rising 20-week moving average, which is now around 5,455, and the September 6 low which was at 5,402.62.
Of note, since the S&P 500 reclaimed its 20-WMA in November 2023, it hasn't registered a weekly close back below it.
The rising 40-WMA, which helped contain the early August swoon, is around 5,230 this week.
The Nasdaq composite .IXIC ended Monday down about 6% from its record highs. The small-cap Russell 2000 .RUT is still more than 10% below its record levels.
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
FOR TUESDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
YEN RALLY: SLAM DUNK OR WIDOWMAKER? - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN CYCLICALS READY TO REBOUND - MORGAN STANLEY - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN BANKS CHEAP ENOUGH TO ABSORB RATE CUTS - UBS - CLICK HERE
CAN TRUMP WEAKEN THE DOLLAR? - CLICK HERE
STOXX ON THE UP - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN FUTURES EDGE HIGHER ON FED OPTIMISM - CLICK HERE
YEN'S BIG WEEK BEGINS - CLICK HERE
SPX09172024 https://tmsnrt.rs/3XvjTl9
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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