Global business survey: Recession worries contained, Trump viewed as most severe geopolitical risk
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GLOBAL BUSINESS SURVEY: RECESSION WORRIES CONTAINED, TRUMP VIEWED AS MOST SEVERE GEOPOLITICAL RISK
Global economic softening and lingering geopolitical question marks are the topics of two global surveys conducted by economic advisory firm Oxford Economics.
First, its flash Global Risk Survey, was answered online by 150 companies from September 6-17, before the Fed's rate decision.
It showed that "despite recent market jitters over the potential for a US recession, less than 1-in-10 respondents think a sharp slowing in US growth is likely over the coming twelve months," the note says.
The prospects of a second Trump administration tops the list of geopolitical concerns.
"Fears over the potential fall-out from a Trump presidency have increased for the third consecutive survey," writes Jamie Thompson, head of macro scenarios at Oxford Economics. "More than two-fifths of businesses now cite a Trump presidency as a very significant risk to the global economy – a greater proportion than for any other geopolitical risk."
Other geopolitical concerns have abated, including an escalation of Middle East tensions, and situations involving China-Taiwan and Russia-NATO.
Second, in parsing the results of its Global Business Sentiment survey, Oxford Economics says that while respondents have become more pessimistic about near-term prospects for the global economy, businesses continue to view a 2025 global recession as unlikely.
The mean year-ahead growth expectation "has edged lower and is 0.5 percentage points below the average pace of growth in the past decade," Thompson says.
Global recession jitters are building some steam.
But those jitters are contained.
"Worries are still relatively contained. Businesses see a 1-in-8 chance of global recession in 2025, and a 1-in-40 chance of an economic slump on the scale experienced during the global financial crisis," Thompson adds.
The chart below, courtesy of Oxford Economics, shows how the perceived probability of a mild to severe global recession have increased since July:
(Stephen Culp)
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Oxford Economics recession survey https://reut.rs/3XQkzTP
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