Durable goods: Transportation saves the day, core capital orders disappoint
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DURABLE GOODS: TRANSPORTATION SAVES THE DAY, CORE CAPITAL ORDERS DISAPPOINT
New orders for long-lasting, U.S.-made goods USDGN=ECI surged by 9.9% last month, marking a solid rebound from June's 6.9% decline and breezing past the 5.7% consensus.
There was little market reaction to the data.
Digging deeper into the Commerce Department's report, which includes everything from air fryers to attack drones, a 34.8% increase in transportation items and a 41.9% upswing in nondefense capital goods helped the top line beat expectations, while a 2.6% drop in motor vehicles/parts limited the upside.
Excluding transportation items, new orders actually dipped 0.2%, while omitting defence goods, orders jumped 10.4%.
Outpointing that this was the largest monthly top line percentage increase in four years, Bernard Yaros, U.S. lead economist at Oxford Economics calls out transportation as the driver.
"Boeing, for example, registered 72 gross orders in July, up from 14 in the prior month," Yaros writes.
Core capital goods, which strips away aircraft and defence merchandise - and is widely considered a barometer of U.S. corporate spending plans - unexpectedly dipped 0.1%, following a downwardly revised 0.5% gain the month prior.
"Our real-time tracker of Q3 equipment investment suggests that growth will come in at roughly half" that of the second quarter, Yaros adds.
But he also sees clearer skies ahead.
"Interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, growth in the digital economy, and the past boom in manufacturing construction all support our baseline forecast for solid growth in this category of business investment," Yaros says.
(Stephen Culp)
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MONDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS
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MARKETS REASSURED BY THE POWELL PUT - CLICK HERE
Opening snapshot https://reut.rs/4dBY4aF
Durable goods https://reut.rs/473912v
Core capital goods https://reut.rs/3XjYDjy
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