Crude oil futures heating up on the charts
U.S. equity index futures red; Nasdaq 100 off ~0.5%
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.2%
Dollar ~flat; gold slips; bitcoin gains; crude up >1%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~4.03%
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CRUDE OIL FUTURES HEATING UP ON THE CHARTS
Oil prices are extending gains on Monday driven by fears of a wider Middle East conflict and potential disruption to exports from the major oil-producing region.
Last week, NYMEX crude futures CLc1 posted their steepest weekly rise since March 2023. And with Monday's gain, the futures are on track to rise for a fifth day in a row.
Of note, the futures bottomed in mid-September essentially right at a Fibonacci retracement level of the April 2020-March 2022 advance:
Oil has rallied since its mid-September trough, when it nearly tagged the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its April 2020-March 2022 advance at $65.25. On September 10, the futures fell to a low of $65.27. They now stand just over $75.00.
That said, the futures appear to be nearing some significant chart barriers, so near-term action may prove to be especially important.
The 50-week moving average (WMA) is now about $77.00, while the 200-WMA is now around $79.20.
The weekly resistance line from the March 2022 high is now around $79.40, while the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March 2022-May 2023 decline is at $79.42.
The mid-August high was at $80.16.
Thus, if crude can punch through $80.16, and take out all of these resistance levels on a weekly closing basis, it will have the potential to signal a sea change in trend.
If crude is repulsed, strong support resides in the $67.71-$63.64 area.
However, a renewed downturn will keep intact the potential for a much deeper decline. This, given that the futures have historically tended to bottom much further below their 200-WMA than was the case in September.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 energy sector .SPNY, up more than 6% in October, is the best performing S&P 500 .SPX group by far this month.
Last week, the sector posted its biggest weekly rise in two years.
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
FOR MONDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
U.S. ELECTION: PREPARE FOR UNCERTAINTY AND VOLATILITY - CLICK HERE
REAL ESTATE TOUR: WARMING UP TO OFFICES - CLICK HERE
RISING YIELDS WEIGH, BANKS EDGE UP - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN FUTURES INCH HIGHER - CLICK HERE
US 'NO LANDING' SCENARIO LIFTS MARKETS - CLICK HERE
CLc110072024 https://tmsnrt.rs/480DEpU
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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