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FX hold firm with eyes on Fed



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CORRECTED-CEE MARKETS-FX hold firm with eyes on Fed</title></head><body>

Corrects forint trading range in paragraph 8

PRAGUE, Sept 18 (Reuters) -Central Europe's currencies held firm on Wednesday, as along with other global markets, they weighed the odds of a super-sized U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut later in the day.

A weaker dollar against the euro, central Europe's reference currency, gave support to the region's currencies, as markets waited to see if the Fed would kick off its easing cycle with a cut of 50 basis points.

What it decides could influence central Europe's policymakers that started their easing cycles over the last year.

The Polish central bank has taken a long pause after initial rate cuts a year ago and Romania's central bank made a slow start.

But the Hungarian and Czech central banks have steadily cut interest rates, although they are slowing the pace now. Both are due to meet on policy next week.

ING said the Fed decision will have more of an impact for Hungary.

"Our economists see a 25-bp rate cut as the baseline, which, if the Fed is dovish, could promise more rate cuts in the future, leaving the forint exposed," ING said in a note.

The forint EURHUF= ticked up less than 0.1% to 394.35 to the euro, caught in the middle of the range of 390-399in which it has hovered since June. The Czech crown EURCZK= added 0.2% to 25.06 per euro, gaining a second straight day as it inches back toward the psychological 25.00 level.

Markets are betting on another 25-bp Czech rate cut after the central bank slowed its pace of easing in August.

Czech central banker Jan Kubicek told Reuters this week he favoured another quarter-point rate cut this month given soft economic data, a slightly firmer currency, near-target inflation and lower wage growth.

"For risk assets, including the crown, the Fed decision will be a source of volatility and so we are counting on greater fluctuations," CSOB said.

In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= was flat at 4.271 to the euro. Romania's leu EURRON= was also little changed at 4.975 per euro.

Stock markets drifted with Prague .PX and Warsaw .WIG20 indices easing a touch and Budapest .BUX little changed, in line with steadied global equity markets waiting on the Fed.


CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1131 CET





CURRENCIES






Latest

Previous

Daily

Change



trade

close

change

in 2024

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.0600

25.1000

+0.16%

-1.43%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

394.3500

394.5500

+0.05%

-2.83%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2710

4.2710

+0.00%

+1.72%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9750

4.9740

-0.02%

-0.01%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0300

117.0700

+0.03%

+0.18%

Note: daily change

calculated from


1800 CET










Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




close

change

in 2024

Prague

.PX

1569.45

1574.2900

-0.31%

+10.99%

Budapest

.BUX

72683.56

72685.08

-0.00%

+19.90%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2335.40

2334.86

+0.02%

-0.32%

Bucharest

.BETI

17498.88

17507.85

-0.05%

+13.84%











Spread

Daily





vs Bund

change in

Czech Republic





spread

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.2500

0.0090

+101bps

+0bps

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.3710

-0.0330

+132bps

-5bps

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.6950

0.0130

+152bps

-1bps

Poland






2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.6350

-0.0290

+239bps

-4bps

5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.9950

-0.0060

+294bps

-3bps

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.3250

0.0110

+315bps

-2bps








FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS






3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.83

3.44

3.11

4.31

Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.08

6.07

5.60

6.46

Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.76

5.30

4.68

5.85

Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices




**************************************************************










Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw; editing by Barbara Lewis

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
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Spot FX rates
Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX=
Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX=

Other news and reports
World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE
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