Czech central BANK statement on September inflation
PRAGUE, Oct 10 (Reuters) -The following is the Czech National Bank's (CNB) comment on September inflation figures released on Thursday:
According to figures released today, the price level increased by 2.6% year on year in September 2024. Annual consumer price inflation accelerated by 0.4 percentage point compared to the previous month but remained within the tolerance band around the CNB’s 2% target.
Annual inflation was 0.3 percentage point higher in September than the CNB’s summer forecast. This was due to stronger growth in prices of food, beverages and tobacco and, to a lesser extent, to slightly faster growth in administered prices. Conversely, core inflation was slightly below the forecast. Fuel prices fell more significantly than forecasted.
September 2024 | year-on-year in % | |
MPR Summer 2024 | Actual value | |
CPI | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Administered prices | 5.6 | 6.6 |
First-round impacts of changes to indirect taxes | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Adjusted for changes to indirect taxes | ||
Prices of food, beverages, tobacco | 1.1 | 2.6 |
Core inflation | 2.4 | 2.3 |
Fuel prices | -5.9 | -11.3 |
Monetary policy-relevant inflation | 2.2 | 2.5 |
Core inflation is being driven by wage growth in the domestic economy, which is affecting services prices in particular.
Conversely, the previous protracted decline in domestic demand, due in part to the CNB’s tight monetary policy, is dampening core inflation. This is fostering a decrease in the profit mark-ups of producers, retailers and service providers over their costs, which is partly offsetting the effect of rising wages on services prices. Goods prices within core inflation are rising only marginally year on year. The ongoing recovery in the property market is being reflected in accelerating growth in imputed rent.
A significant part of the year-on-year increase in prices of food, beverages and tobacco was driven by growth in prices of alcohol and cigarettes. However, food prices also increased year on year, due partly to the effect of the low comparison base in September 2023, when prices uncharacteristically declined across all food categories month on month. This did not repeat in September 2024. The year-on-year decline in fuel prices was due to the continued drop in oil prices on world markets. Annual administered price inflation increased in September, driven in part by rising prices in education.
The price level decreased by 0.4% in September compared to the previous month. According to the CNB’s summer forecast, annual inflation will be close to the central bank’s 2% target in the rest of this year and the subsequent two years.
Reporting by Prague Newsroom
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