Australia, NZ dollars sidelined as investors shun risk
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Nov 1 (Reuters) -The Australian and New Zealand dollars flatlined on Friday as investors shunned risk assets ahead of U.S. jobs data and the presidential election, though the prospect of steady rates at home did offer the Aussie a sliver of support.
Signs of a pickup in Chinese factory activity also helped the mood a little, with the Caixin PMI rising to 50.3 in September.
The Aussie held at $0.6571 AUD=D3, down 0.4% for the week but off a recent three-month low of $0.6534. Support is down at $0.6470 with resistance around $0.6628.
The kiwi dollar was also ailing at $0.5965 NZD=D3, just above a three-month trough of $0.5940. It has support around $0.5912 with resistance at $0.6002.
Both currencies had a rough October as surging Treasury yields lifted the U.S. dollar and markets grew cautious heading into the presidential vote.
That overshadowed a strong performance by the Australian labour market that reinforced market expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia would not be cutting rates this year.
The central bank meets next week and is considered certain to hold at 4.35%, even as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut for a second time in three months.
"We continue to expect the RBA to hold the cash rate steady until a 25bp cut in February," said Adam Boyton, head of Australian economics at ANZ.
However, he did think the RBA might move further toward a neutral stance in its statement, perhaps dropping a previous reference to policy needing to be "sufficiently restrictive."
The central bank might also trim forecasts for economic growth and consumption given data on household spending had shown a surprisingly weak outcome over the third quarter.
Markets are currently much more hawkish on the outlook, tipping just a 19% chance of a rate cut in December and 32% for a move in February. A quarter-point easing is not fully priced until July next year. 0#RBAWATCH
"Our own central case is that the RBA does not cut until Q2 2025, with a shallow easing phase to follow," said Paul Bloxham, head of Australian economics at HSBC.
"The risk is increasing that it takes even longer to cut or that the RBA misses the easing phase altogether."
The outlook could not be more different than for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, where markets are fully priced for a further cut of 50 basis points when it meets on Nov. 27.
The current 4.75% cash rate is seen at 3.82% by Christmas and around 3.09% at the end of next year. 0#RBNZWATCH
Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Jamie Freed
Mga Kaugnay na Asset
Pinakabagong Balita
Disclaimer: Ang mga kabilang sa XM Group ay nagbibigay lang ng serbisyo sa pagpapatupad at pag-access sa aming Online Trading Facility, kung saan pinapahintulutan nito ang pagtingin at/o paggamit sa nilalaman na makikita sa website o sa pamamagitan nito, at walang layuning palitan o palawigin ito, at hindi din ito papalitan o papalawigin. Ang naturang pag-access at paggamit ay palaging alinsunod sa: (i) Mga Tuntunin at Kundisyon; (ii) Mga Babala sa Risk; at (iii) Kabuuang Disclaimer. Kaya naman ang naturang nilalaman ay ituturing na pangkalahatang impormasyon lamang. Mangyaring isaalang-alang na ang mga nilalaman ng aming Online Trading Facility ay hindi paglikom, o alok, para magsagawa ng anumang transaksyon sa mga pinansyal na market. Ang pag-trade sa alinmang pinansyal na market ay nagtataglay ng mataas na lebel ng risk sa iyong kapital.
Lahat ng materyales na nakalathala sa aming Online Trading Facility ay nakalaan para sa layuning edukasyonal/pang-impormasyon lamang at hindi naglalaman – at hindi dapat ituring bilang naglalaman – ng payo at rekomendasyon na pangpinansyal, tungkol sa buwis sa pag-i-invest, o pang-trade, o tala ng aming presyo sa pag-trade, o alok para sa, o paglikom ng, transaksyon sa alinmang pinansyal na instrument o hindi ginustong pinansyal na promosyon.
Sa anumang nilalaman na galing sa ikatlong partido, pati na ang mga nilalaman na inihanda ng XM, ang mga naturang opinyon, balita, pananaliksik, pag-analisa, presyo, ibang impormasyon o link sa ibang mga site na makikita sa website na ito ay ibibigay tulad ng nandoon, bilang pangkalahatang komentaryo sa market at hindi ito nagtataglay ng payo sa pag-i-invest. Kung ang alinmang nilalaman nito ay itinuring bilang pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, kailangan mong isaalang-alang at tanggapin na hindi ito inilaan at inihanda alinsunod sa mga legal na pangangailangan na idinisenyo para maisulong ang pagsasarili ng pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, at dahil dito ituturing ito na komunikasyon sa marketing sa ilalim ng mga kaugnay na batas at regulasyon. Mangyaring siguruhin na nabasa at naintindihan mo ang aming Notipikasyon sa Hindi Independyenteng Pananaliksik sa Pag-i-invest at Babala sa Risk na may kinalaman sa impormasyong nakalagay sa itaas, na maa-access dito.
