Australia dollar hampered by risk aversion, kiwi by rate calls
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Oct 2 (Reuters) -The Australian and New Zealand dollars had stepped back from recent highs on Wednesday as escalating tensions in the Middle East curbed risk appetite, while the kiwi also struggled with bets for sharply lower interest rates.
Sentiment did steady somewhat when Iran said its missile attack on Israel was finished barring further provocation.
The Aussie sat at $0.6882 AUD=D3, having slipped 0.5% overnight and away from a 19-month top of $0.6942. Support lies around $0.6850 and $0.6790.
The kiwi dollar was down at $0.6285 NZD=D3, after sliding 1.1% the previous session and leaving behind its peak of $0.6379. Near-term support comes in at $0.6254.
It took an added blow when BNZ and Westpac changed their outlook for rates to predict accelerated easing of 50 basis points in both October and November.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meets next week and markets had already priced in an odds-on chance of a half-point cut in the 5.25% cash rate. However, investors had assumed rates would only drop by 25 basis points at the next meeting.
"A key driver behind this change in view has been the strong signs that the forward inflation profile will be much more benign in aggregate than we have seen since 2021," said Kelly Eckhold, Westpac chief NZ economist.
"We anticipate a much slower, highly data dependent and uncertain path lower in the OCR in 2025," he added. "We have pencilled in 25bp cuts in each of the February and May taking the OCR to the long-term terminal rate of 3.75%."
Markets are even more dovish and have now shifted to imply 95 basis points of easing by the end of this year, with rates under 3.0% by the end of 2025. 0#RBNZWATCH
Two-year swap rates NZDSM3NB2Y= also fell sharply to the lowest since mid-2022 at 3.49%.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to be far more restrained, with markets implying just a 20% chance of a cut at its next meeting on Nov. 5. 0#RBAWATCH
They are pricing in a 72% probability of a quarter-point cut in the 4.35% cash rate for December and see a gradual drop to around 3.35% by the end of next year.
The Aussie has also been underpinned by China's sudden burst of stimulus steps, including speculation Beijing will announce a fiscal spending package of around 4 trillion yuan next week.
Reporting by Wayne Cole
Editing by Shri Navaratnam
Mga Kaugnay na Asset
Pinakabagong Balita
Disclaimer: Ang mga kabilang sa XM Group ay nagbibigay lang ng serbisyo sa pagpapatupad at pag-access sa aming Online Trading Facility, kung saan pinapahintulutan nito ang pagtingin at/o paggamit sa nilalaman na makikita sa website o sa pamamagitan nito, at walang layuning palitan o palawigin ito, at hindi din ito papalitan o papalawigin. Ang naturang pag-access at paggamit ay palaging alinsunod sa: (i) Mga Tuntunin at Kundisyon; (ii) Mga Babala sa Risk; at (iii) Kabuuang Disclaimer. Kaya naman ang naturang nilalaman ay ituturing na pangkalahatang impormasyon lamang. Mangyaring isaalang-alang na ang mga nilalaman ng aming Online Trading Facility ay hindi paglikom, o alok, para magsagawa ng anumang transaksyon sa mga pinansyal na market. Ang pag-trade sa alinmang pinansyal na market ay nagtataglay ng mataas na lebel ng risk sa iyong kapital.
Lahat ng materyales na nakalathala sa aming Online Trading Facility ay nakalaan para sa layuning edukasyonal/pang-impormasyon lamang at hindi naglalaman – at hindi dapat ituring bilang naglalaman – ng payo at rekomendasyon na pangpinansyal, tungkol sa buwis sa pag-i-invest, o pang-trade, o tala ng aming presyo sa pag-trade, o alok para sa, o paglikom ng, transaksyon sa alinmang pinansyal na instrument o hindi ginustong pinansyal na promosyon.
Sa anumang nilalaman na galing sa ikatlong partido, pati na ang mga nilalaman na inihanda ng XM, ang mga naturang opinyon, balita, pananaliksik, pag-analisa, presyo, ibang impormasyon o link sa ibang mga site na makikita sa website na ito ay ibibigay tulad ng nandoon, bilang pangkalahatang komentaryo sa market at hindi ito nagtataglay ng payo sa pag-i-invest. Kung ang alinmang nilalaman nito ay itinuring bilang pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, kailangan mong isaalang-alang at tanggapin na hindi ito inilaan at inihanda alinsunod sa mga legal na pangangailangan na idinisenyo para maisulong ang pagsasarili ng pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, at dahil dito ituturing ito na komunikasyon sa marketing sa ilalim ng mga kaugnay na batas at regulasyon. Mangyaring siguruhin na nabasa at naintindihan mo ang aming Notipikasyon sa Hindi Independyenteng Pananaliksik sa Pag-i-invest at Babala sa Risk na may kinalaman sa impormasyong nakalagay sa itaas, na maa-access dito.
