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US natgas prices edge up 1% on output decline, higher demand forecasts



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By Scott DiSavino

Nov 6 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Wednesday on a drop in daily output so far this month due to pipeline issues and the evacuation of some oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Rafael, and on forecasts for slightly cooler weather and higher heating demand next week than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 3.5 cents, or 1.3%, to $2.705 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:41 a.m. EDT (1341 GMT).

Open interest in NYMEX futures, meanwhile, rose to a record high for a fourth day in a row, reaching 1.778 million contracts on Nov. 4.

In other news, Donald Trump was elected U.S. president, capping a remarkable comeback four years after he was voted out of the White House.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center forecast Rafael would slam into Cuba later Wednesday as it moves from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico. By Sunday, Rafael is expected to weaken back into a tropical storm before making landfall in the U.S. Gulf Coast near Louisiana or Texas next week.

Hurricanes can boost gas prices by cutting output, although only about 2% of the nation's gas comes from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico area. But hurricanes can also reduce prices by destroying demand for gas through power outages and knocking liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants out of service. Some storms do both.

In the spot market, pipeline constraints caused next-day gas prices at the Waha hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas to remain in negative territory for a fifth day in a row and a record 45th time this year.

Analysts said recent constraints were caused by maintenance on Kinder Morgan's KMI.N Permian Highway gas pipe in Texas that was expected to continue through mid-November.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to 100.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, down from 101.3 bcfd in October. That compared with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.

On a daily basis, output over the past four days was on track to drop by around 2.7 bcfd to a preliminary nine-month low of 98.9 bcfd on Wednesday. Analysts noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

In addition to curtailments for Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico and the Permian Highway maintenance, the daily output decline was also related to a few force majeures and reductions on Kinder Morgan's El Paso pipe in New Mexico over the past couple of days.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 100.9 bcfd this week to 102.4 bcfd next week.

The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 12.3 bcfd so far in November, down from 13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

The feedgas decline so far this month was mostly due to the shutdown of Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas on Nov. 1 amid a power feed interruption at the pre-treatment facility. Freeport, however, was back on line by Nov. 3 and was on track to pull in 2.4 bcfd on Wednesday, which would top the current all-time high of 2.3 bcfd on Tuesday, according to LSEG data.

Week ended Nov 1 Forecast

Week ended Oct 25 Actual

Year ago Nov 1

Five-year average

Nov 1

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+62

+78

+19

+32

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,925

3,863

3,775

3,717

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

5.6%

4.8%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.71

2.67

3.06

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

12.34

12.93

14.45

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

13.54

13.48

17.02

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

183

164

193

254

267

U.S. GFS CDDs

29

29

18

16

13

U.S. GFS TDDs

212

193

211

270

280

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

102.1

100.1

101.0

104.3

98.0

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.2

8.3

7.8

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

110.4

109.3

108.8

N/A

105.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.3

2.4

2.4

N/A

2.9

U.S. Exports to Mexico

5.7

5.5

6.0

N/A

5.5

U.S. LNG Exports

13.3

12.4

13.7

13.8

11.0

U.S. Commercial

7.2

8.0

8.3

8.8

11.5

U.S. Residential

8.7

10.4

10.9

11.8

16.8

U.S. Power Plant

32.0

32.2

31.1

28.7

28.8

U.S. Industrial

22.5

22.7

22.6

22.6

24.3

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.3

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

3.2

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

77.6

80.5

80.3

79.1

90.0

Total U.S. Demand

99.0

100.9

102.4

N/A

109.4

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2003

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

98

95

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

92

90

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

93

92

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Nov 8

Week ended Nov 1

2023

2022

2021

Wind

14

15

10

11

10

Solar

4

5

4

3

3

Hydro

5

5

6

6

7

Other

2

1

2

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

42

42

41

38

37

Coal

14

14

17

21

23

Nuclear

19

19

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

1.62

1.35

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.45

1.11

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.37

1.89

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.39

1.09

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.58

1.15

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.54

1.29

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.25

1.49

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

-1.47

-2.65

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.85

0.55

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

39.75

42.50

PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

44.00

33.00

Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

21.75

31.70

Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

27.75

29.75

Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

25.25

26.00

SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

24.25

25.75



Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Bernadette Baum

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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