US natgas prices ease on less hot weather, lower demand
By Scott DiSavino
Sept 3 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Tuesday after the long U.S. Labor Day holiday weekend on forecasts for less hot weather than previously expected, which should reduce the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming.
That small price decline came despite a bullish drop in output in recent days and rising gas flows to liquefied natural gas export terminals.
Another factor that has weighed on gas prices for much of this year was the tremendous oversupply of fuel left in storage after a mild winter.
There was still about 12% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year, even though injections have been smaller than usual in 15 of the past 16 weeks after extremely low prices in the spring prompted several producers to cut output. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.9 cents, or 0.9%, to $2.108 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:28 a.m. EDT (1328 GMT).
Even though gas futures were up about 5% last week, speculators cut their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for the first time in three weeks to their lowest since July, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to an average of 102.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August.
Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly near normal through Sept. 11 before turning warmer than normal from Sept 12-18. Energy traders, however, noted that warmer-than-normal weather in mid-September would only average around 75 degrees F (23.9 degrees Celsius), down from an average of 79 F (26.1 C) in mid-August.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall from 102.8 bcfd this week to 101.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.1 bcfd so far in September, up from 12.9 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
Looking ahead, Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland will likely shut for about three weeks of routine annual maintenance around Sept. 20, according to the plant's history and notices to customers.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Gas prices were trading around $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and $14 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1. NG/EU
Week ended Aug 30 Forecast | Week ended Aug 23 Actual | Year ago Aug 30 | Five-year average Aug 30 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +34 | +35 | +33 | +51 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,378 | 3,334 | 3,139 | 3,024 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 11.7% | 12.1% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.18 | 2.13 | 2.70 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 12.17 | 12.49 | 11.44 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 14.09 | 14.01 | 13.92 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 10 | 7 | 9 | 16 | 23 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 152 | 168 | 171 | 152 | 133 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 162 | 175 | 180 | 168 | 156 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 103.2 | 102.9 | 103.1 | 104.1 | 96.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.3 | 8.2 | 8.0 | N/A | 7.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 111.6 | 111.1 | 111.1 | N/A | 103.6 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.1 | N/A | 6.0 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.6 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 8.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.9 |
U.S. Residential | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 46.6 | 43.4 | 41.0 | 42.5 | 36.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.9 | 21.8 | 22.0 | 21.5 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 84.2 | 80.6 | 79.0 | 79.5 | 80.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 105.7 | 102.8 | 101.1 | N/A | 90.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 78 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Sep 6 | Week ended Aug 30 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 7 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 55 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 47 | 47 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 16 | 18 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 18 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 1.93 | 1.85 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.45 | 1.30 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.28 | 2.22 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.37 | 1.26 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.62 | 1.56 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.50 | 1.37 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.66 | 1.51 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.67 | -4.80 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.42 | 0.58 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 34.25 | 29.00 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 33.25 | 39.00 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 27.00 | 26.75 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 47.00 | 41.25 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 28.50 | 38.00 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 28.00 | 32.50 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Jonathan Oatis
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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