Nervy end to volatile week, yen eyes breakthrough
By Jamie McGeever
Sept 6 (Reuters) -A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.
Investors in Asia close out a choppy week hoping for calm on Friday but wary that U.S. growth fears are bubbling just under the surface and that the U.S. economic and policy landscape next week could be extremely challenging again.
U.S. employment data on Friday, after Asia's close, will set the tone for world markets up until the Fed announces its interest rate decision and revised economic projections on Sept. 18.
Investors are on edge.
The MSCI World index and S&P 500 are on course for their biggest weekly losses since April, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan and Nikkei 225 are on course for their steepest losses in six weeks, and Shanghai stocks on Thursday plumbed a fresh seven-month low.
Japan's Nikkei is down 5% this week, and could fall further if the yen continues to appreciate. The dollar dipped below 143.00 yen on Thursday for the first time since Aug. 5 and momentum appears to be to the downside.
With a stronger currency in their pocket, Japanese investors are hoovering up assets overseas. Figures on Thursday showed that they were net buyers of foreign bonds for a fifth week, and net buyers of foreign stocks for a third week.
The Fed's policy decision later this month could be the catalyst for dollar/yen to test 140.00. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Reuters on Wednesday that interest rates need to come down, although she didn't say how quickly.
Japanese rates, meanwhile, should continue to rise but at a pace that ensures volatile markets do not harm businesses, Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata said on Thursday.
On the face of it, Fed rate cuts and more BOJ tightening is a recipe for further yen strength. But a lot is already priced into the U.S. curve - over 100 basis points of easing this year and some 225 bps by the end of next year.
Japanese household spending data for July will be released on Friday, following figures on Thursday that showed real wages rose in July for a second month. Until June, inflation-adjusted wages had fallen every month for more than two years.
Strong wage and spending growth will keep the BOJ more inclined to raise rates again, in turn fueling further yen upside.
Many other Asian currencies have been on an impressive upswing in recent weeks too, clawing back most of their losses for the year or even moving into positive territory year-to-date.
The Asian calendar is light on Friday, with South Korean current account figures for August among the few highlights. Seven countries, including Japan, will release their latest FX reserves holdings, which at the last count totaled around $3 trillion.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Friday:
- South Korea current account (August)
- Japan household spending (July)
- Japan FX reserves (August)
Japanese investments in overseas debt securities https://tmsnrt.rs/3JW3oI3
Japanese investments in stocks abroad https://tmsnrt.rs/3nxoepG
Reporting by Jamie McGeever
Mga Kaugnay na Asset
Pinakabagong Balita
Disclaimer: Ang mga kabilang sa XM Group ay nagbibigay lang ng serbisyo sa pagpapatupad at pag-access sa aming Online Trading Facility, kung saan pinapahintulutan nito ang pagtingin at/o paggamit sa nilalaman na makikita sa website o sa pamamagitan nito, at walang layuning palitan o palawigin ito, at hindi din ito papalitan o papalawigin. Ang naturang pag-access at paggamit ay palaging alinsunod sa: (i) Mga Tuntunin at Kundisyon; (ii) Mga Babala sa Risk; at (iii) Kabuuang Disclaimer. Kaya naman ang naturang nilalaman ay ituturing na pangkalahatang impormasyon lamang. Mangyaring isaalang-alang na ang mga nilalaman ng aming Online Trading Facility ay hindi paglikom, o alok, para magsagawa ng anumang transaksyon sa mga pinansyal na market. Ang pag-trade sa alinmang pinansyal na market ay nagtataglay ng mataas na lebel ng risk sa iyong kapital.
Lahat ng materyales na nakalathala sa aming Online Trading Facility ay nakalaan para sa layuning edukasyonal/pang-impormasyon lamang at hindi naglalaman – at hindi dapat ituring bilang naglalaman – ng payo at rekomendasyon na pangpinansyal, tungkol sa buwis sa pag-i-invest, o pang-trade, o tala ng aming presyo sa pag-trade, o alok para sa, o paglikom ng, transaksyon sa alinmang pinansyal na instrument o hindi ginustong pinansyal na promosyon.
Sa anumang nilalaman na galing sa ikatlong partido, pati na ang mga nilalaman na inihanda ng XM, ang mga naturang opinyon, balita, pananaliksik, pag-analisa, presyo, ibang impormasyon o link sa ibang mga site na makikita sa website na ito ay ibibigay tulad ng nandoon, bilang pangkalahatang komentaryo sa market at hindi ito nagtataglay ng payo sa pag-i-invest. Kung ang alinmang nilalaman nito ay itinuring bilang pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, kailangan mong isaalang-alang at tanggapin na hindi ito inilaan at inihanda alinsunod sa mga legal na pangangailangan na idinisenyo para maisulong ang pagsasarili ng pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, at dahil dito ituturing ito na komunikasyon sa marketing sa ilalim ng mga kaugnay na batas at regulasyon. Mangyaring siguruhin na nabasa at naintindihan mo ang aming Notipikasyon sa Hindi Independyenteng Pananaliksik sa Pag-i-invest at Babala sa Risk na may kinalaman sa impormasyong nakalagay sa itaas, na maa-access dito.
