US recap: Retail sales rise boosts USD as Fed cut view ebbs
Repeat with no changes
Aug 15 (Reuters) -The USD index traded near the top of its Thursday range in NorAm's afternoon, rising 0.33% to 102.94. The catalyst for the dollar's rise coming after upbeat U.S. retail sales data tempered recent uber-dovish Fed rate expectations.
Today's above-forecast retail sales, and softer jobless claims, hinted the recent drop in U.S. payrolls may have been a one-off, and did not warrant over-the-top rate cut expectations.
UST yields rose significantly, with 2-5 year note yields rising 16-14bps and longer-end yields rose near 10bps. LSEG's IRPR also indicated a reduction in Fed rate cut expectations as futures show a 26% chance for a 50bp Fed cut in September and -94bps by year-end 2024, the December cut view was -104bps on Wednesday.
The higher yields provided a boost to the dollar, though the USD gain was not universal. A quick look at the FX leader-board shows high-yielders held a distinct advantage in today's performance and risk in general performed well.
EUR/USD fell 0.3% to 1.0979 in NorAm afternoon trading. Today's rise in German bunds, which did not keep pace with U.S. yields, put pressure on the euro. The lower yielding euro, and unwinding of recent haven flows amid the risk rally, added to the decline. EUR finds support at the rising 10-DMA near today's low at 1.0947.
USD/JPY rose 1.19% to 149.05 ahead of the NorAm close. The U.S.-Japan yield differential remains the primary driver of USD/JPY gains. Today's dialing back of dovish Fed expectations once again supported carry trades versus the yen. Resistance can be found at 149.42, the 38.2% Fibo of 161.96-141.68, and natural big-figure resistance at 150.
GBP/USD initially slid to 1.2798 after the USD positive data, but the weakness quickly reversed and the pound rallied to match its recent high at 1.2871 before dipping to 1.2852 ahead of the NorAm close.
The pounds high-yield and positive risk correlation providing the boost. Resistance is holding near 1.2870, the pound's 3-day high area. Friday's UK retail sales are in focus and if UK sales replicate the U.S. read, sterling bulls are likely to make a run toward 1.30.
Risk was well-bid across several markets. Equities shrugged off the higher rates as the retail sales rise indicates the consumer is doing well. The Nasdaq was trading 2.1% higher and the S&P 500 rallied 1.42% in NorAm afternoon trade.
Bitcoin gained 0.3% to $59.3k rallying off early NorAm lows by $58k. Ether bounced off session lows, but held to a -0.3% loss at $2,652. Gold eked out a 0.3% gain to $2,455, hovering near all-time-highs by $2,480. Silver rallied 2.65% to $28.33; silver's broad industrial demand reacting positively to the higher sales data.
For more click on FXBUZ
Editing by Terence Gabriel
Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.
Mga Kaugnay na Asset
Pinakabagong Balita
Disclaimer: Ang mga kabilang sa XM Group ay nagbibigay lang ng serbisyo sa pagpapatupad at pag-access sa aming Online Trading Facility, kung saan pinapahintulutan nito ang pagtingin at/o paggamit sa nilalaman na makikita sa website o sa pamamagitan nito, at walang layuning palitan o palawigin ito, at hindi din ito papalitan o papalawigin. Ang naturang pag-access at paggamit ay palaging alinsunod sa: (i) Mga Tuntunin at Kundisyon; (ii) Mga Babala sa Risk; at (iii) Kabuuang Disclaimer. Kaya naman ang naturang nilalaman ay ituturing na pangkalahatang impormasyon lamang. Mangyaring isaalang-alang na ang mga nilalaman ng aming Online Trading Facility ay hindi paglikom, o alok, para magsagawa ng anumang transaksyon sa mga pinansyal na market. Ang pag-trade sa alinmang pinansyal na market ay nagtataglay ng mataas na lebel ng risk sa iyong kapital.
Lahat ng materyales na nakalathala sa aming Online Trading Facility ay nakalaan para sa layuning edukasyonal/pang-impormasyon lamang at hindi naglalaman – at hindi dapat ituring bilang naglalaman – ng payo at rekomendasyon na pangpinansyal, tungkol sa buwis sa pag-i-invest, o pang-trade, o tala ng aming presyo sa pag-trade, o alok para sa, o paglikom ng, transaksyon sa alinmang pinansyal na instrument o hindi ginustong pinansyal na promosyon.
Sa anumang nilalaman na galing sa ikatlong partido, pati na ang mga nilalaman na inihanda ng XM, ang mga naturang opinyon, balita, pananaliksik, pag-analisa, presyo, ibang impormasyon o link sa ibang mga site na makikita sa website na ito ay ibibigay tulad ng nandoon, bilang pangkalahatang komentaryo sa market at hindi ito nagtataglay ng payo sa pag-i-invest. Kung ang alinmang nilalaman nito ay itinuring bilang pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, kailangan mong isaalang-alang at tanggapin na hindi ito inilaan at inihanda alinsunod sa mga legal na pangangailangan na idinisenyo para maisulong ang pagsasarili ng pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, at dahil dito ituturing ito na komunikasyon sa marketing sa ilalim ng mga kaugnay na batas at regulasyon. Mangyaring siguruhin na nabasa at naintindihan mo ang aming Notipikasyon sa Hindi Independyenteng Pananaliksik sa Pag-i-invest at Babala sa Risk na may kinalaman sa impormasyong nakalagay sa itaas, na maa-access dito.
