Hindi nagbibigay ng serbisyo ang XM sa mga residente ng Estados Unidos.

The bearish and bullish cases for US corn stocks on Monday -Braun



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>COLUMN-The bearish and bullish cases for US corn stocks on Monday -Braun</title></head><body>

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.

By Karen Braun

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Sept 26 (Reuters) -Last year’s record-large harvest boosted U.S. corn inventory to multi-year highs, though the actual supply estimates have dwindled notably over the last year because of robust demand.

The situation will be clearer on Monday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture publishes its quarterly stock survey results as of Sept. 1, which represents the end of the 2023-24 marketing year for U.S. corn and soybeans.

The trade often struggles to anticipate these numbers, and this year may be no different as there are valid reasons why corn supplies could land above or below expectations.

Analysts peg Sept. 1 U.S. corn stocks at 1.844 billion bushels, a four-year high and up almost 40% from the recent three-year average. Past results might suggest the heavy supply situation would favor corn bulls.

Aside from 2024, there have been nine other instances since 2005 where the average trade guess for Sept. 1 corn stocks exceeded 1.7 billion bushels. The Sept. 1 outcome was bearish, meaning stocks were larger than expected in only one of those nine years (2018).

The bearish Sept. 1 corn outcomes occur more often when supplies are thin. These observations imply that the trade misjudges demand dynamics when prices are relatively high or low.

However, that relationship could fall through this year because of an unusual adjustment from USDA following the last quarterly stocks report.

Three months ago, USDA revealed heavier June 1 corn stocks than analysts expected. Logically, the trade anticipated this would drive the agency’s 2023-24 ending stock estimate higher in July.

Instead, USDA slashed 2023-24 ending stocks in July by an abnormally large 7%. This was due to increases in both feed and residual use as well as in exports, the latter of which was certainly warranted.

But USDA almost always cuts feed and residual use in July whenever June 1 supplies were bigger than expected, so it is possible that this bearish factor comes back in to play this quarter.

The feed and residual category, which accounts for nearly 40% of annual U.S. corn demand, periodically frustrates traders since the “residual” component is not quantifiable and is therefore the root of many unexpected supply adjustments.


SOME SILVER LINING

Despite this year’s tricky setup, analysts have somewhat safeguarded the market from surprise. The range of trade guesses for Sept. 1 corn stocks is wider than normal, and this is the case for soybeans and wheat, too.

Sept. 1 U.S. corn stocks have landed outside the range of trade guess in five of the last seven years (not 2021 or 2023). Sept. 1 soybean stocks have violated the trade range in four of the last seven years, but Sept. 1 wheat stocks have not done so since 2012.

Sept. 1 soybean and wheat stocks, like corn, are also predicted at four-year highs.

Analysts’ corn stock estimates imply use in the fourth quarter of 2023-24 was the third-highest ever, and recent data could be on their side. Corn used for ethanol was record-high and exports hit a six-year high for the period.

USDA has recently acknowledged the strong U.S. corn export pace, having boosted its 2023-24 export estimate by 6.5% over the last three months, the most for that period in at least two decades.

Corn used for ethanol in 2023-24 is seen falling 2.5% short of 2017-18’s record, but recent ethanol output data suggests the pace may have been better and that the margin could be narrower.

But all this number-crunching could be voided by feed and residual use, which in strong demand years like 2023-24 often drifts lower at the end, possibly presenting an unfriendly close to September for corn bulls.


Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.


Graphic- Sept. 1 U.S. corn stocks: trade estimates versus trade biases https://tmsnrt.rs/3TMcSvj

Graphic- U.S. June 1 corn stocks versus feed and residual https://tmsnrt.rs/3TJWk7s


Writing by Karen Braun
Editing by Matthew Lewis

</body></html>

Disclaimer: Ang mga kabilang sa XM Group ay nagbibigay lang ng serbisyo sa pagpapatupad at pag-access sa aming Online Trading Facility, kung saan pinapahintulutan nito ang pagtingin at/o paggamit sa nilalaman na makikita sa website o sa pamamagitan nito, at walang layuning palitan o palawigin ito, at hindi din ito papalitan o papalawigin. Ang naturang pag-access at paggamit ay palaging alinsunod sa: (i) Mga Tuntunin at Kundisyon; (ii) Mga Babala sa Risk; at (iii) Kabuuang Disclaimer. Kaya naman ang naturang nilalaman ay ituturing na pangkalahatang impormasyon lamang. Mangyaring isaalang-alang na ang mga nilalaman ng aming Online Trading Facility ay hindi paglikom, o alok, para magsagawa ng anumang transaksyon sa mga pinansyal na market. Ang pag-trade sa alinmang pinansyal na market ay nagtataglay ng mataas na lebel ng risk sa iyong kapital.

Lahat ng materyales na nakalathala sa aming Online Trading Facility ay nakalaan para sa layuning edukasyonal/pang-impormasyon lamang at hindi naglalaman – at hindi dapat ituring bilang naglalaman – ng payo at rekomendasyon na pangpinansyal, tungkol sa buwis sa pag-i-invest, o pang-trade, o tala ng aming presyo sa pag-trade, o alok para sa, o paglikom ng, transaksyon sa alinmang pinansyal na instrument o hindi ginustong pinansyal na promosyon.

Sa anumang nilalaman na galing sa ikatlong partido, pati na ang mga nilalaman na inihanda ng XM, ang mga naturang opinyon, balita, pananaliksik, pag-analisa, presyo, ibang impormasyon o link sa ibang mga site na makikita sa website na ito ay ibibigay tulad ng nandoon, bilang pangkalahatang komentaryo sa market at hindi ito nagtataglay ng payo sa pag-i-invest. Kung ang alinmang nilalaman nito ay itinuring bilang pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, kailangan mong isaalang-alang at tanggapin na hindi ito inilaan at inihanda alinsunod sa mga legal na pangangailangan na idinisenyo para maisulong ang pagsasarili ng pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, at dahil dito ituturing ito na komunikasyon sa marketing sa ilalim ng mga kaugnay na batas at regulasyon. Mangyaring siguruhin na nabasa at naintindihan mo ang aming Notipikasyon sa Hindi Independyenteng Pananaliksik sa Pag-i-invest at Babala sa Risk na may kinalaman sa impormasyong nakalagay sa itaas, na maa-access dito.

Babala sa Risk: Maaaring malugi ang iyong kapital. Maaaring hindi nababagay sa lahat ang mga produktong naka-leverage. Mangyaring isaalang-alang ang aming Pahayag sa Risk.