Relief (mostly) everywhere
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Dhara Ranasinghe.
The relief across world markets as signs of a softening in the U.S. jobs markets strengthens the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts to start later this year remains palpable.
Not only did U.S. 10-year Treasury yields end Friday down 17 basis points US10YT=RR, in their biggest weekly drop of the year, but the S&P 500 stock index had its best day in over two months.
Investors in Asia picked up the buy-baton on Monday, sending MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS to its highest in over a year and government bond yields in Europe are lower again DE2YT=RR.
For sure, public holidays in Japan and Britain make for quieter trade, but there is little doubt the mood music in markets has changed after Friday's news that the U.S. economy created 175,000 new jobs in April, the lowest since October.
Money markets are back to pricing in roughly two 25 bps Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Last week, traders came close to no longer fully pricing in one cut for the year as nervous markets started to position again for higher for longer rates.
Market attention now turns to the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey, a closely-watched indicator of credit conditions, expected later in the session.
The last survey, released in February, showed U.S. banks anticipated an increase in demand for loans as rates fall this year.
One key question is whether the improvement in bank lending conditions could be undermined by the rise in government borrowing costs this year, with two-year Treasury yields up 55 bps.
It is also notable that the relief felt across world markets after the latest U.S. jobs data did not last long for some. While dollar/yen fell sharply after those numbers on Friday as markets renewed Fed rate-cut nets, the currency par is 0.5% firmer in early European trade not far off 154.
That essentially means the Bank of Japan, which was suspected to have intervened in currency markets last week to shore up a weak yen, still has its work cut out.
Given that Japanese authorities picked last week's quiet periods to intervene in the currency market, traders will be on high alert through the day.
Elsewhere, China's yuan surged to a six-week high against the dollar, catching up on the first trading day after the long Labor Day holiday, as the central bank set a much strengthened midpoint fixing to track offshore movements.
Apple shares AAPL.O, meanwhile, could be in focus after news at the weekend that Berkshire Hathaway BRKa.N significantly reduced its enormous stake in the iphone maker.
Key diary items that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
* U.S. April employment trends, New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for April
* New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speak. Swiss National Bank Chair Thomas Jordan speaks
* Chinese President Xi Jinping in France as part of week-long visit to Europe
* U.S. corporate earnings: Tyson Foods, Loews, Microchip Technology, Axon, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Realty Income, Simon Property, FMC, International Flavors & Fragrances, Progressive Corp, Williams
* U.S. Treasury auctions 6-month bills
Nonfarm payrolls https://reut.rs/44o7Vgv
Markets remain on yen intervention watch https://reut.rs/4a7WWZP
Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe; editing by Ed Osmond
Mga Kaugnay na Asset
Pinakabagong Balita
Disclaimer: Ang mga kabilang sa XM Group ay nagbibigay lang ng serbisyo sa pagpapatupad at pag-access sa aming Online Trading Facility, kung saan pinapahintulutan nito ang pagtingin at/o paggamit sa nilalaman na makikita sa website o sa pamamagitan nito, at walang layuning palitan o palawigin ito, at hindi din ito papalitan o papalawigin. Ang naturang pag-access at paggamit ay palaging alinsunod sa: (i) Mga Tuntunin at Kundisyon; (ii) Mga Babala sa Risk; at (iii) Kabuuang Disclaimer. Kaya naman ang naturang nilalaman ay ituturing na pangkalahatang impormasyon lamang. Mangyaring isaalang-alang na ang mga nilalaman ng aming Online Trading Facility ay hindi paglikom, o alok, para magsagawa ng anumang transaksyon sa mga pinansyal na market. Ang pag-trade sa alinmang pinansyal na market ay nagtataglay ng mataas na lebel ng risk sa iyong kapital.
Lahat ng materyales na nakalathala sa aming Online Trading Facility ay nakalaan para sa layuning edukasyonal/pang-impormasyon lamang at hindi naglalaman – at hindi dapat ituring bilang naglalaman – ng payo at rekomendasyon na pangpinansyal, tungkol sa buwis sa pag-i-invest, o pang-trade, o tala ng aming presyo sa pag-trade, o alok para sa, o paglikom ng, transaksyon sa alinmang pinansyal na instrument o hindi ginustong pinansyal na promosyon.
Sa anumang nilalaman na galing sa ikatlong partido, pati na ang mga nilalaman na inihanda ng XM, ang mga naturang opinyon, balita, pananaliksik, pag-analisa, presyo, ibang impormasyon o link sa ibang mga site na makikita sa website na ito ay ibibigay tulad ng nandoon, bilang pangkalahatang komentaryo sa market at hindi ito nagtataglay ng payo sa pag-i-invest. Kung ang alinmang nilalaman nito ay itinuring bilang pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, kailangan mong isaalang-alang at tanggapin na hindi ito inilaan at inihanda alinsunod sa mga legal na pangangailangan na idinisenyo para maisulong ang pagsasarili ng pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, at dahil dito ituturing ito na komunikasyon sa marketing sa ilalim ng mga kaugnay na batas at regulasyon. Mangyaring siguruhin na nabasa at naintindihan mo ang aming Notipikasyon sa Hindi Independyenteng Pananaliksik sa Pag-i-invest at Babala sa Risk na may kinalaman sa impormasyong nakalagay sa itaas, na maa-access dito.