India should retain headline inflation as target, external rate panel members say
By Swati Bhat
MUMBAI, Aug 23 (Reuters) -Headline inflation impacts Indians directly and should be retained as the target for monetary policy rather than switching to core inflation, external members of the central bank's rate panel told Reuters.
A suggestion was made in the government's official annual economic report last month to target inflation excluding volatile food prices, which are driven more by supply shortages. The idea has ignited a debate in India over the appropriate target for monetary policy.
India adopted the inflation targeting framework in 2016, setting a 4% headline inflation target for the central bank's rate setting panel.
The target has limited interest rate cuts as risingfood prices have kept headline inflation above 4%, even though core inflation has fallen to record low levels of around 3%, prompting analysts to call on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to focus on the latter.
Shashanka Bhide, an external member of the Reserve Bank of India's MPC, said it is necessary to look at the whole consumption basket to gauge the actual price pressures in the economy.
"If we use a partial basket for a target then it would not reflect the overall price pressures and if the target is the core alone, then it should in some way capture the trend of food inflation or fuel inflation if not the volatility," Bhide said in an interview with Reuters.
The MPC - which comprises three Reserve Bank of India officials and three external members appointed by the government - has held the key repo rate steady at 6.5% for nine straight meetings now, citing persistently high food prices.
Growth in India's economy is seen slowing to 7.2% in the current fiscal year from 8.2% last year.
Jayanth Varma, a second external MPC member, who has voted for a 25 basis point rate cut for four straight meetings said that while he supports rate cuts, a shift in target when food prices are high is not appropriate.
"One of the key questions for the MPC is whether high food inflation would spill over into core inflation, and this concern would remain if the target were changed to core," Varma said in a separate interview with Reuters.
Ashima Goyal, the third external member, who has also voted for a cut for two meetings now said research has shown the headline inflation rate moves towards core inflation in India over the longer term.
"Headline is the inflation that impacts the public more. But I think the MPC should pay more attention to core inflation," she said.
The current rate panel has had to contend with headline inflation being above the 4% target for most of their tenure due to high food and fuel prices.
Goyal said that if the MPC was targeting core inflation, it would have opened up room to lower interest rates. Varma differed, saying the numerical value of the core inflation target could have been different, so it was not possible to say with certainty where the repo rate would be.
India's July inflation finally below MPC's 4% target https://reut.rs/3AJMJ9I
Reporting by Swati Bhat; Editing by Kim Coghill and Susan Fenton
Pinakabagong Balita
Disclaimer: Ang mga kabilang sa XM Group ay nagbibigay lang ng serbisyo sa pagpapatupad at pag-access sa aming Online Trading Facility, kung saan pinapahintulutan nito ang pagtingin at/o paggamit sa nilalaman na makikita sa website o sa pamamagitan nito, at walang layuning palitan o palawigin ito, at hindi din ito papalitan o papalawigin. Ang naturang pag-access at paggamit ay palaging alinsunod sa: (i) Mga Tuntunin at Kundisyon; (ii) Mga Babala sa Risk; at (iii) Kabuuang Disclaimer. Kaya naman ang naturang nilalaman ay ituturing na pangkalahatang impormasyon lamang. Mangyaring isaalang-alang na ang mga nilalaman ng aming Online Trading Facility ay hindi paglikom, o alok, para magsagawa ng anumang transaksyon sa mga pinansyal na market. Ang pag-trade sa alinmang pinansyal na market ay nagtataglay ng mataas na lebel ng risk sa iyong kapital.
Lahat ng materyales na nakalathala sa aming Online Trading Facility ay nakalaan para sa layuning edukasyonal/pang-impormasyon lamang at hindi naglalaman – at hindi dapat ituring bilang naglalaman – ng payo at rekomendasyon na pangpinansyal, tungkol sa buwis sa pag-i-invest, o pang-trade, o tala ng aming presyo sa pag-trade, o alok para sa, o paglikom ng, transaksyon sa alinmang pinansyal na instrument o hindi ginustong pinansyal na promosyon.
Sa anumang nilalaman na galing sa ikatlong partido, pati na ang mga nilalaman na inihanda ng XM, ang mga naturang opinyon, balita, pananaliksik, pag-analisa, presyo, ibang impormasyon o link sa ibang mga site na makikita sa website na ito ay ibibigay tulad ng nandoon, bilang pangkalahatang komentaryo sa market at hindi ito nagtataglay ng payo sa pag-i-invest. Kung ang alinmang nilalaman nito ay itinuring bilang pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, kailangan mong isaalang-alang at tanggapin na hindi ito inilaan at inihanda alinsunod sa mga legal na pangangailangan na idinisenyo para maisulong ang pagsasarili ng pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, at dahil dito ituturing ito na komunikasyon sa marketing sa ilalim ng mga kaugnay na batas at regulasyon. Mangyaring siguruhin na nabasa at naintindihan mo ang aming Notipikasyon sa Hindi Independyenteng Pananaliksik sa Pag-i-invest at Babala sa Risk na may kinalaman sa impormasyong nakalagay sa itaas, na maa-access dito.