FX pushes higher, forint firms before Hungarian rate decision
PRAGUE, July 22 (Reuters) -Central Europe's currencies firmed at the start of the week, helped by a softer U.S. dollar, with the forint cautiously advancing before a Hungarian central bank meeting that may or may not deliver another interest rate cut.
Hungary's central bank could deliver its 15th consecutive rate cut on Tuesday, although analysts in a Reuters poll are almost evenly split between a cut and the first pause in rate easing in more than a year.
A cut could dampen the forint's gradual rise since mid-June, during which it has gained more than 2% since nearing the psychological 400 per euro level.
The forint EURHUF= traded at 389.60 to the euro on Monday, up 0.2% over Friday's local close.
MBH Bank said the chances of a further Hungarian interest rate cut have risen, coming alongside growing expectations of lower U.S. interest rates.
"The now more likely (Hungarian) rate cut is unlikely to shake the forint too much due to declining market interest rate expectations, but it could put a damper on any further strengthening," MBH Bank said in a note.
Hungary's central bank, which has faced strong pressure from Prime Minister Viktor Orban's government to reduce borrowing costs, cut the base rate to 7% last month, with rate cuts now totalling 1,100 basis points since May 2023.
Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag said last week another possible small reduction in the base rate was an "open question".
Elsewhere, the Polish zloty EURPLN= added 0.2% to 4.28 per euro and the Czech crown EURCZK= inched 0.1% higher to 25.225 per euro. Romania's leu EURRON= was steady.
The zloty has retreated somewhat in recent sessions after testing fresh four-year highs beyond 4.25.
Polish bank Santander Bank Polska said the U.S. election campaign could add to volatility.
The dollar eased slightly on Monday as investors focused on U.S. President Joe Biden's decision to end his re-election campaign. The weaker dollar boosted appetite for emerging market assets.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1121 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.2250 | 25.2410 | +0.06% | -2.08% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 389.6000 | 390.4000 | +0.21% | -1.65% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2800 | 4.2870 | +0.16% | +1.51% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9715 | 4.9710 | -0.01% | +0.06% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9900 | 117.0500 | +0.05% | +0.22% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1605.24 | 1613.1800 | -0.49% | +13.52% |
Budapest | .BUX | 73119.10 | 72940.89 | +0.24% | +20.62% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2478.94 | 2476.38 | +0.10% | +5.80% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 18670.36 | 18662.07 | +0.04% | +21.46% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.6870 | -0.0230 | +088bps | -5bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.7290 | -0.0120 | +129bps | -3bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.8780 | -0.0170 | +140bps | -3bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.0990 | -0.0120 | +229bps | -4bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.5460 | 0.0110 | +311bps | -1bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.6680 | -0.0030 | +319bps | -2bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 4.13 | 3.73 | 3.54 | 4.59 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.38 | 6.50 | 6.20 | 6.79 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.83 | 5.70 | 5.41 | 5.86 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices |
Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest and Karol Badohal in Warsaw; Editing by Kirsten Donovan
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