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FX pushes higher, forint firms before Hungarian rate decision



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PRAGUE, July 22 (Reuters) -Central Europe's currencies firmed at the start of the week, helped by a softer U.S. dollar, with the forint cautiously advancing before a Hungarian central bank meeting that may or may not deliver another interest rate cut.

Hungary's central bank could deliver its 15th consecutive rate cut on Tuesday, although analysts in a Reuters poll are almost evenly split between a cut and the first pause in rate easing in more than a year.

A cut could dampen the forint's gradual rise since mid-June, during which it has gained more than 2% since nearing the psychological 400 per euro level.

The forint EURHUF= traded at 389.60 to the euro on Monday, up 0.2% over Friday's local close.

MBH Bank said the chances of a further Hungarian interest rate cut have risen, coming alongside growing expectations of lower U.S. interest rates.

"The now more likely (Hungarian) rate cut is unlikely to shake the forint too much due to declining market interest rate expectations, but it could put a damper on any further strengthening," MBH Bank said in a note.

Hungary's central bank, which has faced strong pressure from Prime Minister Viktor Orban's government to reduce borrowing costs, cut the base rate to 7% last month, with rate cuts now totalling 1,100 basis points since May 2023.

Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag said last week another possible small reduction in the base rate was an "open question".

Elsewhere, the Polish zloty EURPLN= added 0.2% to 4.28 per euro and the Czech crown EURCZK= inched 0.1% higher to 25.225 per euro. Romania's leu EURRON= was steady.

The zloty has retreated somewhat in recent sessions after testing fresh four-year highs beyond 4.25.

Polish bank Santander Bank Polska said the U.S. election campaign could add to volatility.

The dollar eased slightly on Monday as investors focused on U.S. President Joe Biden's decision to end his re-election campaign. The weaker dollar boosted appetite for emerging market assets.



CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1121 CET





CURRENCIES






Latest

Previous

Daily

Change



trade

close

change

in 2024

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.2250

25.2410

+0.06%

-2.08%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

389.6000

390.4000

+0.21%

-1.65%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2800

4.2870

+0.16%

+1.51%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9715

4.9710

-0.01%

+0.06%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9900

117.0500

+0.05%

+0.22%

Note: daily change

calculated from



1800 CET










Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




close

change

in 2024

Prague

.PX

1605.24

1613.1800

-0.49%

+13.52%

Budapest

.BUX

73119.10

72940.89

+0.24%

+20.62%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2478.94

2476.38

+0.10%

+5.80%

Bucharest

.BETI

18670.36

18662.07

+0.04%

+21.46%











Spread

Daily





vs Bund

change in

Czech Republic





spread

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.6870

-0.0230

+088bps

-5bps

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.7290

-0.0120

+129bps

-3bps

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.8780

-0.0170

+140bps

-3bps

Poland






2-year

PL2YT=RR

5.0990

-0.0120

+229bps

-4bps

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.5460

0.0110

+311bps

-1bps

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.6680

-0.0030

+319bps

-2bps








FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS






3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

4.13

3.73

3.54

4.59

Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.38

6.50

6.20

6.79

Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.83

5.70

5.41

5.86

Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices







Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest and Karol Badohal in Warsaw; Editing by Kirsten Donovan

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/

Spot FX rates
Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX=
Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX=

Other news and reports
World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE
Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY
Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
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