Hindi nagbibigay ng serbisyo ang XM sa mga residente ng Estados Unidos.

Friday data roundup: PPI defies CPI, UMich unexpectedly sours



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>LIVE MARKETS-Friday data roundup: PPI defies CPI, UMich unexpectedly sours</title></head><body>

Dow up ~0.7%, S&P 500 rises ~0.5%, Nasdaq edges green

Financials lead S&P sector gainers; Tech, Cons disc slip

Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.5%

Dollar ~flat; gold up ~1%; bitcoin up >3%; crude slips

U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges down to ~4.08%

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com


FRIDAY DATA ROUNDUP: PPI DEFIES CPI, UMICH UNEXPECTEDLY SOURS

Friday's data ran counterpoint to other recent indicators, suggesting that while inflation is indeed cooling, consumer expectations are increasingly burdened by uncertainties, particularly surrounding the upcoming presidential election.

The Labor Department's producer prices index (PPI) USPPFD=ECI bucked the trend by showing a September inflation reading that's cooling nearly across the board.

PPI, which tracks the prices U.S. companies get for their goods and services and the figurative factory door, were unchanged last month, following the 0.2% August advance, marking a welcome deceleration.

Consensus called for a nominal 0.1% monthly gain.

Year-over-year, headline PPI gained 1.8%, slightly cooler than the prior month's upwardly revised 1.9%, but coming in above the 1.6% analysts expected.

The core measure, with eliminates volatile food, energy and trade services, rose on monthly and annual bases by 0.1% and 3.2%, respectively, both 10 basis points lower than August's readings.

Digging below the topline, the price of goods actually fell 0.2%. Excluding food and energy, however, goods gained 0.2%.

Looking at intermediate (business-to-business) demand, unprocessed/raw materials plunged by 3.2%, but stripping away food and energy items, unprocessed goods gained 1.9%.

Services prices increased 0.2% on both a final (business to consumer) and an intermediate basis.

Taken together, the report shows PPI continues to cool, albeit not quite as quickly as the Fed might like.

"After an upside surprise from the September CPI report, producer prices came in below expectations and provide support for a 25bps rate cut in November," says Matthew Martin, senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

Headline PPI is, after all, within one percentage point of Powell & Co's annual target. The underlying/core metric has a bit further to go:



Switching gears, the American consumer has soured unexpectedly in October, according to the University of Michigan (UMich).

UMich's preliminary take on current-month consumer sentiment USUMSP=ECI shed 1.2 points to land at 68.9, well below the 70.8 analysts expected.

Economist predictions that survey respondents' assessments "current conditions" and "near term expectations" would improve were wrong on both counts; they dropped by 0.9% and 2.0%, respectively.

Still, overall sentiment is 8% brighter compared with October 2023, a fact outpointed by Joanne Hsu, director of UMich's consumer surveys.

"With the upcoming election on the horizon, some consumers appear to be withholding judgment about the longer term trajectory of the economy," Hsu writes.

It's worth noting, however, that "current conditions" remains substantially below the trough that occurred in April 2020, amid the initial shock of mandated pandemic shutdowns.



Inflation views have shifted, with longer-term, 5-year expectations cooling to 3.0%, while shorter, one-year expectations heated up to 2.9%.

So how useful is the consumer inflation expectations metric as a predictor of inflation?

The graphic below shifts one-year inflation expectations forward by one year, and maps it against core CPI.

It would appear UMich survey participants don't have crystal balls, but they do demonstrate how expectations can become self-fulfilling prophesies. And they see core inflation dipping ever closer to the Fed's target within a year.



(Stephen Culp)

*****



FOR FRIDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:


U.S. STOCKS PUSH HIGHER, BANKS A BRIGHT SPOT - CLICK HERE


U.S. STOCK FUTURES MUTED AFTER MIXED PPI - CLICK HERE


FRENCH BUDGET: A LOOMING DILEMMA FOR BRUSSELS? - CLICK HERE


HOW THE EURO CAN FALL TO PARITY VERSUS DOLLAR - CLICK HERE


STOXX CALM, SET FOR SMALL WEEKLY GAIN - CLICK HERE


FUTURES POINT TO STEADY START, LOOK THROUGH FRENCH BUDGET - CLICK HERE


MARKETS TURN CAUTIOUS BEFORE UNCERTAIN WEEKEND - CLICK HERE



Inflation gauges https://reut.rs/402qpTE

UMich current conditions and expectations https://reut.rs/3Ya6H5U

UMich inflation expectations https://reut.rs/3NmldCl

</body></html>

Mga Kaugnay na Asset


Pinakabagong Balita

North Sea Crude-Ekofisk offered lower

C
G

US earnings season gets going with upbeat bank results

G
J
N
U
U

Big US banks say consumers are still strong, despite economy fears

C
J

PJM wants to delay capacity auction after environmentalists' complaint


JP Morgan raises Deere & Co PT; shares up

Disclaimer: Ang mga kabilang sa XM Group ay nagbibigay lang ng serbisyo sa pagpapatupad at pag-access sa aming Online Trading Facility, kung saan pinapahintulutan nito ang pagtingin at/o paggamit sa nilalaman na makikita sa website o sa pamamagitan nito, at walang layuning palitan o palawigin ito, at hindi din ito papalitan o papalawigin. Ang naturang pag-access at paggamit ay palaging alinsunod sa: (i) Mga Tuntunin at Kundisyon; (ii) Mga Babala sa Risk; at (iii) Kabuuang Disclaimer. Kaya naman ang naturang nilalaman ay ituturing na pangkalahatang impormasyon lamang. Mangyaring isaalang-alang na ang mga nilalaman ng aming Online Trading Facility ay hindi paglikom, o alok, para magsagawa ng anumang transaksyon sa mga pinansyal na market. Ang pag-trade sa alinmang pinansyal na market ay nagtataglay ng mataas na lebel ng risk sa iyong kapital.

Lahat ng materyales na nakalathala sa aming Online Trading Facility ay nakalaan para sa layuning edukasyonal/pang-impormasyon lamang at hindi naglalaman – at hindi dapat ituring bilang naglalaman – ng payo at rekomendasyon na pangpinansyal, tungkol sa buwis sa pag-i-invest, o pang-trade, o tala ng aming presyo sa pag-trade, o alok para sa, o paglikom ng, transaksyon sa alinmang pinansyal na instrument o hindi ginustong pinansyal na promosyon.

Sa anumang nilalaman na galing sa ikatlong partido, pati na ang mga nilalaman na inihanda ng XM, ang mga naturang opinyon, balita, pananaliksik, pag-analisa, presyo, ibang impormasyon o link sa ibang mga site na makikita sa website na ito ay ibibigay tulad ng nandoon, bilang pangkalahatang komentaryo sa market at hindi ito nagtataglay ng payo sa pag-i-invest. Kung ang alinmang nilalaman nito ay itinuring bilang pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, kailangan mong isaalang-alang at tanggapin na hindi ito inilaan at inihanda alinsunod sa mga legal na pangangailangan na idinisenyo para maisulong ang pagsasarili ng pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, at dahil dito ituturing ito na komunikasyon sa marketing sa ilalim ng mga kaugnay na batas at regulasyon. Mangyaring siguruhin na nabasa at naintindihan mo ang aming Notipikasyon sa Hindi Independyenteng Pananaliksik sa Pag-i-invest at Babala sa Risk na may kinalaman sa impormasyong nakalagay sa itaas, na maa-access dito.

Babala sa Risk: Maaaring malugi ang iyong kapital. Maaaring hindi nababagay sa lahat ang mga produktong naka-leverage. Mangyaring isaalang-alang ang aming Pahayag sa Risk.