Forint pares gains ahead of interest rates decision next week
WARSAW, July 19 (Reuters) -The Hungarian forint eased on Friday, weighed down by lower risk appetite and a firming dollar, and pulled back from its highest standing since early June.
A worldwide cyber outage that hit banks, airlines and broadcasters on Friday unsettled investors, although volatility in the currency market remained contained.
By 1108 GMT the Hungarian foring EURHUF= was down 0.2% against the euro to 391.25, pulling back from its almost 1-1/2-month high hit on Thursday.
"In the gloomy international sentiment, the forint is also weakening," Hungarian lender MBH bank said in a note.
Hungary's central bank could deliver its 15th consecutive rate cut next Tuesday, lowering its base rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%, although analysts in a Reuters poll were almost evenly split between a cut and a first pause in rate easing in more than a year.
"I don't expect the NBH (National Bank of Hungary) to cut its base rate next Tuesday, given their communication and that they expect inflation to surge at the end of summer," a Budapest-based trader said.
"But if the forint firms to a level that allows them to cut by 25bps, that would negatively impact the forint. However, a 25 bps cut would not cause drama."
The Polish zloty EURPLN= traded sideways at 4.2880 per euro, near its weakest levels since mid-July.
Polish lender Bank Millennium said the zloty was rather unmoved by Thursday's data from the labour market and the industry, and that a rather empty macroeconomic data calendar would help the currency stabilise.
Polish industrial output PLIPY=ECI unexpectedly returned to growth in June, data on Thursday showed, defying analyst expectations that negative calendar effects and weak demand would lead it to contract.
"Without new impulses, the EUR/PLN exchange rate should stabilize, in our opinion, slightly below the psychological level of 4.30," Bank Millennium analysts wrote in a note.
The Czech crown EURCZK= was also flat against the euro at 25.2560.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, but said September's meeting was "wide open" as it downgraded its view of the euro zone's economic prospects and predicted that inflation would keep on falling.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1308 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.2560 | 25.2580 | +0.01% | -2.20% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 391.2500 | 390.3700 | -0.22% | -2.06% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2880 | 4.2865 | -0.04% | +1.32% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9710 | 4.9690 | -0.04% | +0.07% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9500 | 117.0200 | +0.06% | +0.25% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1609.89 | 1612.5200 | -0.16% | +13.85% |
Budapest | .BUX | 72801.42 | 72899.65 | -0.13% | +20.09% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2472.35 | 2496.44 | -0.96% | +5.52% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 18644.47 | 18749.46 | -0.56% | +21.30% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.7030 | -0.1750 | +095bps | -20bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.7410 | -0.0010 | +134bps | -3bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.8920 | -0.0730 | +146bps | -10bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.0830 | 0.0290 | +233bps | +1bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.4870 | 0.0200 | +309bps | -1bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.6260 | 0.0210 | +319bps | -1bps |
FORWARD | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 4.13 | 3.77 | 3.52 | 4.60 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.39 | 6.52 | 5.74 | 6.80 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.82 | 5.70 | 5.39 | 5.86 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** |
Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw and Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest; Editing by Vijay Kishore
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