Dollar in holding pattern ahead of FOMC minutes, Powell comments
By Rae Wee
SINGAPORE, Aug 19 (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar was struggling to make headway against its peers on Monday, though it traded in a tight range as investors awaited fresh catalysts this week that could offer clues on the outlook for U.S. interest rates.
Minutes of the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting and a speech from Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole are likely to be the main drivers of currency movement this week, which will also see inflation data from Canada and Japan alongside Purchasing Managers' Index readings across the U.S., euro zone and UK.
The euro EUR=EBS last bought $1.1026 while sterling GBP=D3 rose to a one-month high of $1.2950 in an otherwise muted start to the Asian trading session, as bets for an imminent start to the Fed's easing cycle pressured the dollar.
Against a basket of currencies, the greenback fell 0.06% to 102.40 =USD.
Traders have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, with a 24.5% chance of a 50 bp move. Futures point to over 90 bps worth of easing by year-end. FEDWATCH
"Markets will be laser focused to what Powell has to say at the end of this week, and on that, I think it will be a great opportunity for Powell to either endorse or push back market pricing," said currency strategist Carol Kong at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA).
"I think he'll at least greenlight a rate cut at the September meeting. If anything, I think he'll try to retain optionality because we do have some more data before the next meeting."
Financial markets had a turbulent start to August after a slew of softer-than-expected U.S. economic data - in particular, a weak jobs report for July triggered severe volatility as investors feared the world's largest economy was headed for a recession and that the Fed was being slow in easing rates.
With those worries now moderating, traditional safehaven assets such as the yen JPY=EBS - which received a boost from a flight to safety - have given up some of their early August gains.
The Japanese currency was last 0.2% lower at 147.93 a dollar, having fallen some 4% from a seven-month high at the start of the month.
Japanese investment data on Friday confirmed that after a bout of turmoil, investors were back to betting on the Bank of Japan going slow on rate rises and on the yen staying cheap.
"Given financial markets have calmed down and volatility has eased, I think it is possible that dollar/yen can recover more, perhaps to 150, as volatility continues to move back lower," said CBA's Kong.
The New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 rose 0.16% to $0.6062, while the Australian dollar AUD=D3 hit a one-month high of $0.66865.
The Aussie has been drawing support from a still-hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia after Governor Michele Bullock on Friday said it was premature to be thinking about rate cuts.
Her comments came just days after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered its first rate cut in over four years.
World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Christopher Cushing
Mga Kaugnay na Asset
Pinakabagong Balita
Disclaimer: Ang mga kabilang sa XM Group ay nagbibigay lang ng serbisyo sa pagpapatupad at pag-access sa aming Online Trading Facility, kung saan pinapahintulutan nito ang pagtingin at/o paggamit sa nilalaman na makikita sa website o sa pamamagitan nito, at walang layuning palitan o palawigin ito, at hindi din ito papalitan o papalawigin. Ang naturang pag-access at paggamit ay palaging alinsunod sa: (i) Mga Tuntunin at Kundisyon; (ii) Mga Babala sa Risk; at (iii) Kabuuang Disclaimer. Kaya naman ang naturang nilalaman ay ituturing na pangkalahatang impormasyon lamang. Mangyaring isaalang-alang na ang mga nilalaman ng aming Online Trading Facility ay hindi paglikom, o alok, para magsagawa ng anumang transaksyon sa mga pinansyal na market. Ang pag-trade sa alinmang pinansyal na market ay nagtataglay ng mataas na lebel ng risk sa iyong kapital.
Lahat ng materyales na nakalathala sa aming Online Trading Facility ay nakalaan para sa layuning edukasyonal/pang-impormasyon lamang at hindi naglalaman – at hindi dapat ituring bilang naglalaman – ng payo at rekomendasyon na pangpinansyal, tungkol sa buwis sa pag-i-invest, o pang-trade, o tala ng aming presyo sa pag-trade, o alok para sa, o paglikom ng, transaksyon sa alinmang pinansyal na instrument o hindi ginustong pinansyal na promosyon.
Sa anumang nilalaman na galing sa ikatlong partido, pati na ang mga nilalaman na inihanda ng XM, ang mga naturang opinyon, balita, pananaliksik, pag-analisa, presyo, ibang impormasyon o link sa ibang mga site na makikita sa website na ito ay ibibigay tulad ng nandoon, bilang pangkalahatang komentaryo sa market at hindi ito nagtataglay ng payo sa pag-i-invest. Kung ang alinmang nilalaman nito ay itinuring bilang pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, kailangan mong isaalang-alang at tanggapin na hindi ito inilaan at inihanda alinsunod sa mga legal na pangangailangan na idinisenyo para maisulong ang pagsasarili ng pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, at dahil dito ituturing ito na komunikasyon sa marketing sa ilalim ng mga kaugnay na batas at regulasyon. Mangyaring siguruhin na nabasa at naintindihan mo ang aming Notipikasyon sa Hindi Independyenteng Pananaliksik sa Pag-i-invest at Babala sa Risk na may kinalaman sa impormasyong nakalagay sa itaas, na maa-access dito.