Czech crown weakens on expectations of smaller rate cut
By Boldizsar Gyori
BUDAPEST, June 27 (Reuters) -The Czech crown weakened ahead of a rate decision by policymakers on Thursday, with the forint and zloty slightly firming in range-bound trading.
The Czech National Bank is likely to slow its interest rate-cutting drive when it convenes later in the day, with markets betting the central bank will opt for a smaller cut following three straight 50-basis-point reductions.
The decision is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. (1230 GMT), with the governor delivering his comments at 3:45 p.m.
The majority of respondents expect the pace of rate cuts to slow to 25 bps, a Reuters poll showed, to a policy rate CZCBIR=ECI of 5%, forecasting the repo rate at 4% by the end of the year.
The crown EURCZK= weakened by 0.19% to 24.945 to the euro at 0802 GMT, hovering around the six-week low it touched briefly late last week.
"In our view, the weaker koruna exchange rate since mid-June now acts as the swing factor in favour of a smaller cut," Commerzbank wrote in a note.
"There were several remarks and signals ... which suggested that both 25bp and 50bp rate cut options will be at play during the meeting, but on balance, the 25bp outcome has emerged as the favourite."
Czech inflation has fallen below 3% and is in the bank's tolerance band around its 2% target, after hitting double-digit rates in 2022-2023.
But double-digit wage rises outpacing average growth rates in the European Union have raised alarm among central Europe's monetary policymakers wary of a rebound in inflation as the region's economic recovery gains traction.
"Slowing core inflation speaks in favour of a more rapid cut. However ... a high and stable rate of growth in prices of services, is an argument for greater caution. Above-average wage growth is another inflationary risk," J&T Bank said.
Elsewhere in the region the Polish zloty EURPLN= traded at 4.31, firming 0.1%, but remaining in a range.
"We assume EURPLN will remain in the 4.25-4.35 range in the coming weeks, and we think the zloty may stay closer to the weaker end of this range in case of prolonged dollar strength and uncertainty around the French elections," Santander Bank Polska said in a note.
The forint EURHUF= traded at 396, up by 0.15%.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1002 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 24.9450 | 24.8980 | -0.19% | -0.98% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 396.0000 | 396.6000 | +0.15% | -3.24% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.3090 | 4.3135 | +0.10% | +0.82% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9775 | 4.9775 | +0.00% | -0.06% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.0100 | 117.0300 | +0.02% | +0.20% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1530.37 | 1539.9100 | -0.62% | +8.23% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 71146.48 | 71013.43 | +0.19% | +17.36% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2543.31 | 2541.43 | +0.07% | +8.55% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 18023.70 | 18279.10 | -1.40% | +17.26% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 4.1200 | -0.0010 | +128bps | -2bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 4.0930 | 0.0060 | +162bps | -2bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.1990 | 0.0080 | +172bps | -2bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.1900 | 0.0110 | +235bps | -1bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.5950 | 0.0110 | +312bps | -2bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.8060 | 0.0310 | +333bps | +1bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 4.49 | 4.21 | 4.01 | 4.98 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 7.15 | 6.88 | 6.62 | 6.89 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.78 | 5.61 | 5.31 | 5.85 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** | ||||||
Reporting by Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest; additional reporting by Badohal Karol in Warsaw and Jan Lopatka in Prague; Editing by Anil D'Silva
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