Crop Watch: Late-season dry stretch could threaten soy potential -Braun
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.
By Karen Braun
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Aug 26 (Reuters) -Last week was the driest of the 2024 season for the U.S. Crop Watch fields as just two locations – Kansas and North Dakota - received measurable rainfall, though seasonably cool temperatures offered some balance.
A shot of heat will move through the central United States early this week before seasonably mild temperatures return by the weekend, though forecasts as of Monday suggest the next two weeks will continue to feature scarce rainfall.
Iowa and Minnesota have the best chances of midweek rain, though amounts may not exceed 1 inch (25 mm). Even lighter rains are expected over the next seven days in other Crop Watch locations.
The fourth week of August was similarly dry a year ago, though two more relatively dry weeks had followed. Final 2023 Crop Watch soybean yield was lower than had been expected as of late August, but the corn yield was about the same, emphasizing the influence of late-season rains on the beans.
U.S. soybean yields could be clipped if this week’s rains disappoint, though areas like Indiana and Illinois could still observe records given the huge current potential.
The upcoming dryness is also not of huge concern for Crop Watch fields in the Dakotas where moisture is still plentiful, though those producers, along with the one in Minnesota, continue to stress the desire for heat to bring corn across the finish line before the first frost.
Crop Watch producers have been rating yield potential on a 1-to-5 scale. Yield potential incorporates both visible and non-visible elements where 3 is around farm average yield, 4 is solidly above average and 5 is record or close to it.
The 11-field, unweighted average corn yield rose to 3.3 from 3.27 in the previous week based on a slight improvement in eastern Iowa. Average soybean yield fell to 3.55 from 3.57 a week earlier.
A half-point rise in the Minnesota soybeans and a smaller bump in western Iowa were offset by minor cuts in Nebraska and eastern Iowa and a half-point decline in Ohio. The Ohio location is classified as in extreme drought (D3) per the U.S. Drought Monitor, among the state’s worst-ever drought ratings, albeit not statewide.
The following are the states and counties of the 2024 Crop Watch corn and soybean fields: Kingsbury, South Dakota; Freeborn, Minnesota; Burt, Nebraska; Rice, Kansas; Audubon, Iowa; Cedar, Iowa; Warren, Illinois; Crawford, Illinois; Tippecanoe, Indiana; and Fairfield, Ohio. The North Dakota soybeans are in Griggs County and the corn is in Stutsman County.
Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.
Writing by Karen Braun
Editing by Matthew Lewis
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