Bank of Thailand to hold rates steady on Oct. 16, cut in Q1 2025
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=THCBIR%3DECI poll data
Inflation quickened in September but remains below BOT's target range
Economists expect growth to improve with increased tourism and public spending
BOT and government to discuss inflation target amid economic concerns
By Veronica Dudei Maia Khongwir
BENGALURU, Oct 11 (Reuters) -The Bank of Thailand (BOT) will leave its key interest rate unchanged at 2.50% next week and for the rest of the year, according to a Reuters poll of economists who brought forward their first rate cut expectations by a quarter.
Inflation quickened in September to 0.61% from 0.35% in August but remained below the BOT's target range of 1-3%. However, median forecasts in the poll showed inflation will return to within the range this quarter.
Growth in Southeast Asia's second-largest economy has lagged its regional peers due to high household debt but is expected to improve with an increase in tourists and a pick-up in public spending supported by the government's digital wallet scheme.
A strong majority of economists, 24 of 28, in the Oct. 7-10 poll forecast the BOT to keep its benchmark one-day repurchase rate THCBIR=ECI unchanged at 2.50% on Oct. 16.
Four expected a 25 basis point cut, a move the government wants to help revive the sluggish economy.
"As the BOT remains 'outlook dependent and looking through short-term noises,' and as long as there is no significant downside risks to their economic outlook, the BOT could view the current monetary policy stance as suitable," said Poon Panichpibool, a markets strategist with Krung Thai Bank.
"Moreover, the BOT could decide to use more direct measures to alleviate the household debt problem. The policy rate will be the last thing that the BOT will utilize unless there are clear downside risks from weakness in the domestic economy."
The central bank reiterated at its last meeting that the current policy interest rate is consistent with the economy converging to its potential.
Among economists who provided a forecast for year-end, around 60%, or 15 of 26 said interest rates will remain on hold. The rest expected a decrease of 25 basis points or more.
The median forecast suggested the first 25 basis point cut to come next quarter, a change from an August poll where the first reduction was predicted to come in Q2.
That change in view comes after the Thai baht touched its highest level in 31 months on Sept. 30, posing a challenge to exporters and tourism spending, along with household debt reaching a record high.
After almost a year-long tussle regarding economic support between the government and the BOT, both met last week to express their concerns. They will be meeting again this month to discuss the inflation target.
"The minister and the governor do meet regularly. Therefore, the meeting should not influence the MPC's decision," said Nond Prueksiri, senior economist at Siam Commercial Bank.
"The BOT will have to recalibrate its policy thinking given it will be increasingly obvious that the potential growth rate of the Thai economy will be significantly lower than in the past."
Thailand's economic growth will average 2.5% this year and 2.9% in 2025, poll medians showed, from 2.6% and 3.2% predicted in July.
(Other stories from the October Reuters global economic poll)
Reporting by Veronica Dudei Maia Khongwir; Polling by Devayani Sathyan; Editing by Nick Zieminski
Pinakabagong Balita
Disclaimer: Ang mga kabilang sa XM Group ay nagbibigay lang ng serbisyo sa pagpapatupad at pag-access sa aming Online Trading Facility, kung saan pinapahintulutan nito ang pagtingin at/o paggamit sa nilalaman na makikita sa website o sa pamamagitan nito, at walang layuning palitan o palawigin ito, at hindi din ito papalitan o papalawigin. Ang naturang pag-access at paggamit ay palaging alinsunod sa: (i) Mga Tuntunin at Kundisyon; (ii) Mga Babala sa Risk; at (iii) Kabuuang Disclaimer. Kaya naman ang naturang nilalaman ay ituturing na pangkalahatang impormasyon lamang. Mangyaring isaalang-alang na ang mga nilalaman ng aming Online Trading Facility ay hindi paglikom, o alok, para magsagawa ng anumang transaksyon sa mga pinansyal na market. Ang pag-trade sa alinmang pinansyal na market ay nagtataglay ng mataas na lebel ng risk sa iyong kapital.
Lahat ng materyales na nakalathala sa aming Online Trading Facility ay nakalaan para sa layuning edukasyonal/pang-impormasyon lamang at hindi naglalaman – at hindi dapat ituring bilang naglalaman – ng payo at rekomendasyon na pangpinansyal, tungkol sa buwis sa pag-i-invest, o pang-trade, o tala ng aming presyo sa pag-trade, o alok para sa, o paglikom ng, transaksyon sa alinmang pinansyal na instrument o hindi ginustong pinansyal na promosyon.
Sa anumang nilalaman na galing sa ikatlong partido, pati na ang mga nilalaman na inihanda ng XM, ang mga naturang opinyon, balita, pananaliksik, pag-analisa, presyo, ibang impormasyon o link sa ibang mga site na makikita sa website na ito ay ibibigay tulad ng nandoon, bilang pangkalahatang komentaryo sa market at hindi ito nagtataglay ng payo sa pag-i-invest. Kung ang alinmang nilalaman nito ay itinuring bilang pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, kailangan mong isaalang-alang at tanggapin na hindi ito inilaan at inihanda alinsunod sa mga legal na pangangailangan na idinisenyo para maisulong ang pagsasarili ng pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, at dahil dito ituturing ito na komunikasyon sa marketing sa ilalim ng mga kaugnay na batas at regulasyon. Mangyaring siguruhin na nabasa at naintindihan mo ang aming Notipikasyon sa Hindi Independyenteng Pananaliksik sa Pag-i-invest at Babala sa Risk na may kinalaman sa impormasyong nakalagay sa itaas, na maa-access dito.
