• German 40 index strives to exit bearish formation before a widely expected rate cut

• Short-term risk skewed to the upside, but confirmation signal could come above 18,672

The German 40 index started Thursday’s session on a positive note, aiming to extend its latest upturn above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and out of the short-term bearish channel at 18,672.

All eyes will be on the ECB policy meeting today and particularly on the central bank’s guidance on future rate cuts as a quarter-point reduction is already priced in. The index could benefit from dovish communication, and from a technical standpoint, the bulls seem to have the wind in their sails. The RSI is sloping upwards again after bottoming out twice around its 50 neutral mark. Likewise, the stochastic oscillator has changed direction to the upside, promoting the current positive action in the market.

The all-time high of 18,920 and the psychological mark of 19,000 could serve as initial obstacles on the upside. Passing through that wall, the index could rise into the 19,265-19,300 area, where the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the latest downfall is placed. Another victory there could add more fuel to the rally, bringing the all-important resistance trendline from December 2023 at 19,550 under the limelight.

In the opposite case of the price pulling below its 20-day SMA at 18,672, it might again seek support near the 50-day SMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci mark of the April-May upleg around 18,340. A step below that base might not discourage traders unless the decline stretches below 18,223, where the lower band of the bearish channel is currently intersecting the tentative ascending line from October 2023. If that bearish scenario plays out, the index could slump towards the 61.8% Fibonacci of 17,982 or even lower into the 17,600-17,727 zone.