Chinese exports probably plunged in February on virus shutdowns - Forex News Preview
Manufacturers got off to a good start in 2020 as easing trade tensions with the United States helped Chinese exporters increase their global shipments by 7.9% year-on-year in January. However, just as the economic outlook had started to brighten, the deadly spread of the coronavirus is threatening to wreak greater damage on the world economy than the 2008 financial crisis did.
Manufacturing and services PMIs released already pointed to a collapse in output in those sectors in February and the trade figures will be the first hard data to likely confirm a large-scale fallout. According to a Refinitiv poll, analysts are forecasting that exports tumbled by 14.0% y/y in February, while imports are expected to have plummeted by 15.0% y/y.
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/CN_Trade.png)
Worse numbers than those forecasted are very possible when considering the extent of the restrictions on travel and business operations on large swaths of the country. And given how reactive markets have become to negative virus-related news, disappointing trade data is likely to pressure stocks, as well as the yuan and the Australian dollar, which is sensitive to China-related trades.
Having pulled back from 11-year lows, aussie/dollar could reverse lower from renewed concerns about China’s economy, cutting its rebound short, though downside moves would also depend on whether selling pressure on the greenback itself eases at all. If there is a negative turn, aussie/dollar could seek support at the 138.2% Fibonacci extension of the October-December uptrend at 0.6529 before heading for the February trough of 0.6432.
But if the trade figures aren’t quite as grim as being projected, market reaction might be limited with the aussie taking advantage of the dollar’s weakness to recover back above the $0.67 level.
![](https://www.xm.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/AUDUSD.png)
It’s worth bearing in mind that the focus now has turned to how fast the virus is spreading in the rest of the world as many countries seem unprepared to deal with the outbreak. While in China, the number of new cases has been steadily declining and many businesses are restarting their operations, suggesting a possible bounce in economic activity in March.
This doesn’t mean that the trade data doesn’t have the potential to upset markets on Monday, but going forward, Chinese indicators may gradually move out of the spotlight, with European, Japanese and US gauges receiving far more scrutiny.Pinakabagong Balita
Disclaimer: Ang mga kabilang sa XM Group ay nagbibigay lang ng serbisyo sa pagpapatupad at pag-access sa aming Online Trading Facility, kung saan pinapahintulutan nito ang pagtingin at/o paggamit sa nilalaman na makikita sa website o sa pamamagitan nito, at walang layuning palitan o palawigin ito, at hindi din ito papalitan o papalawigin. Ang naturang pag-access at paggamit ay palaging alinsunod sa: (i) Mga Tuntunin at Kundisyon; (ii) Mga Babala sa Risk; at (iii) Kabuuang Disclaimer. Kaya naman ang naturang nilalaman ay ituturing na pangkalahatang impormasyon lamang. Mangyaring isaalang-alang na ang mga nilalaman ng aming Online Trading Facility ay hindi paglikom, o alok, para magsagawa ng anumang transaksyon sa mga pinansyal na market. Ang pag-trade sa alinmang pinansyal na market ay nagtataglay ng mataas na lebel ng risk sa iyong kapital.
Lahat ng materyales na nakalathala sa aming Online Trading Facility ay nakalaan para sa layuning edukasyonal/pang-impormasyon lamang at hindi naglalaman – at hindi dapat ituring bilang naglalaman – ng payo at rekomendasyon na pangpinansyal, tungkol sa buwis sa pag-i-invest, o pang-trade, o tala ng aming presyo sa pag-trade, o alok para sa, o paglikom ng, transaksyon sa alinmang pinansyal na instrument o hindi ginustong pinansyal na promosyon.
Sa anumang nilalaman na galing sa ikatlong partido, pati na ang mga nilalaman na inihanda ng XM, ang mga naturang opinyon, balita, pananaliksik, pag-analisa, presyo, ibang impormasyon o link sa ibang mga site na makikita sa website na ito ay ibibigay tulad ng nandoon, bilang pangkalahatang komentaryo sa market at hindi ito nagtataglay ng payo sa pag-i-invest. Kung ang alinmang nilalaman nito ay itinuring bilang pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, kailangan mong isaalang-alang at tanggapin na hindi ito inilaan at inihanda alinsunod sa mga legal na pangangailangan na idinisenyo para maisulong ang pagsasarili ng pananaliksik sa pag-i-invest, at dahil dito ituturing ito na komunikasyon sa marketing sa ilalim ng mga kaugnay na batas at regulasyon. Mangyaring siguruhin na nabasa at naintindihan mo ang aming Notipikasyon sa Hindi Independyenteng Pananaliksik sa Pag-i-invest at Babala sa Risk na may kinalaman sa impormasyong nakalagay sa itaas, na maa-access dito.