US natgas prices rise more than 2% on hot-weather forecasts
July 12 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 2% on Friday after touching their lowest in close to two-months earlier in the session, helped by forecasts for warmer than usual weather over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Warmer than normal weather triggers air conditioning demand.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.3 cents, or 2.3%, to $2.32 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:38 a.m. EDT. The contract dropped to its lowest since May 13 earlier in the session.
"We are trying to rebound on the expectations that the outlook going forward is going to be better," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group, adding that, because of the potential demand destruction due to the storm Beryl and a bearish weekly inventory report that showed that production and supplies came in the higher than anticipated it's almost amazing that the market is holding up as well.
"On the flip side of that, there are some people that are calling for a return to some hot weather in the coming weeks and that may give the market some support."
Financial firm LSEG estimated 257 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states, slightly higher from the 252 CDDs estimated on Thursday. The normal is 204 HDDs for this time of year.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, at 107.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week, before easing to 106.2 bcfd next week.
LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 has risen to an average of 102.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in July, up from an average of 100.2 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.5 bcfd in May. U.S. output hit a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday indicated that utilities added 65 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended July 5.
That was more than the 55-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 57 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 57 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
That build boosted the amount of gas in storage to around 19% above normal levels for this time of year.
Week ended July 5 Actual | Week ended June 28 Actual | Year ago July 5 | Five-year average July 5 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +65 | +32 | +57 | +57 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,199 | 3,134 | 2,915 | 2,695 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 18.7% | 18.8% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.26 | 2.31 | 2.64 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 10.04 | 9.92 | 9.58 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.37 | 12.35 | 11.44 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 3 | 3 | 3 | ||
U.S. GFS CDDs | 257 | 252 | 204 | ||
U.S. GFS TDDs | 260 | 255 | 207 | ||
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 102.1 | 101.6 | 101.4 | 102.1 | 95.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.2 | 7.8 | 7.5 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 110.3 | 109.4 | 108.9 | N/A | 112.5 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.8 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 11.7 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 13.0 | 8.6 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
U.S. Residential | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
U.S. Power Plant | 49.7 | 50.2 | 48.5 | 44.5 | 43.3 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.3 | 21.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 86.6 | 87.2 | 85.6 | 81.3 | 79.9 |
Total U.S. Demand | 106.4 | 107.1 | 106.2 | N/A | 96.9 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jul 12 | Week ended Jul 5 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 5 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 48 | 43 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 18 | 17 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 17 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.23 | 2.40 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.63 | 1.80 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.13 | 3.40 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.47 | 1.56 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.83 | 1.84 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.78 | 1.92 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.59 | 2.97 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.81 | 1.55 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.06 | 0.95 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 46.25 | 56.00 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 49.50 | 37.75 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 25.25 | 29.50 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 84.00 | 145.00 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 80.00 | 115.50 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 63.50 | 96.75 |
Reporting by Daksh Grover, Rahul Paswan and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; editing by David Evans
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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