Fed's Powell set to speak as economists fret about a policy mistake, election risk
Economists cite Fed policy mistake as top economic risk
Powell expected to discuss rate cut, policy outlook
Survey shows mixed opinions on policy rate, election risks
By Howard Schneider
NASHVILLE, Tennessee, Sept 30 (Reuters) -A mistake by the U.S. central bankin setting interest rates during the last phase of its inflation battle is the main risk that could undercut the economy over the next year, according to a new survey of economists released as Federal ReserveChair Jerome Powell was set to speak on Monday.
Among 32 professional forecasters surveyed recently by the National Association for Business Economics, 39% cited a "monetary policy mistake" as the "greatest downside risk to the U.S. economy over the next 12 months." By contrast, 23% regarded the outcome of the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election as the biggest downside risk and the same number cited an intensification of the conflicts in Ukraine and theMiddle East.
The responses in the survey, which was released on Sunday,show the intense focus on the Fed as it eases monetary policy while hoping to both keep inflation on a steady decline back to its 2% target and avoid a significant additional rise in an unemployment rate that has been increasing modestly for a year.
Powell is scheduled to address the association at 12:55 p.m. CDT (1755 GMT)in Nashville, Tennessee, and is expected to elaborate on the Fed's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point at its Sept. 17-18 meeting and on the considerations that will frame an expected series of reductions in borrowing costsover the rest of this year and in 2025.
The Fed is expected to cut rates again, eitherby a quarter or half of a percentage point, at its Nov. 6-7 policy meeting.
Overall risks to the economy are increasing, the association's panel of economistsindicated, with 55% saying it was more likely the economy would perform worse than expected than do better - with Fed policytopping the list of possible speed bumps.
As it stands, the panel at the median said U.S. economicgrowth is expected to slow to 1.8% next year, from an estimated 2.6% this year, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, from the current 4.2%, and inflation ending next year at 2.1%.
Two-thirds of respondents said they did not expect a recession until at least 2026.
'JUST IN TIME'
Such resultswould likely be cheered by Powell and the Fed as a textbook "soft landing." Inflation, as measured by the central bank's preferred personal consumption expenditures price index, has fallen froma peak above 7% in 2022 to 2.2% last month without a recession or a sharp rise in the unemployment rate. While the jobless rate has risen to 4.2% from half-century lows last year of3.4%, it remains well below the average of 5.7% recorded in Bureau of Labor Statistics data since the late 1940s.
But there's broad disagreement about how to finish the job, highlighting concerns about the Fed's ability to avoid either keeping borrowing costs and financial conditions too tight, and slowing the economy unnecessarily, or loosening so quickly that inflation rebounds.
While the median of the panel's forecasters said the current policy rate is where it should be following the Fed's recent rate cut, opinion was roughly split on that issue - with a majority feeling the central bank is already off track.
The rate move came "just in time," 65% of the respondents said.
But only one-third of thembelieve the current policy rate is "just right," while another third "believe the rate should be less than 4.75% and 30% believe it should be 5% or higher," the survey showed.
Among other risks cited, respondents were divided over what election outcome posed the greater threat to the economy.
Having control of Congress and the White House in the hands of one party can make decision-making smoother on issues like lifting the debt ceiling or setting a budget, but can also give a president more leeway to act on campaign promises, such as tax cuts or trade policies.
As a negative risk, 13% said a Republican sweep of the White House and Congress would pose a threat, compared to 10% who felt that way about a Democratic sweep of the executive and legislative branches of government.
By contrast, 7% of respondents viewed a Democratic or Republican sweep in a positive light.
Divided government was seen as a downside risk by 17% of respondents and an upside risk by 13%.
Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao
Laatste nieuws
Disclaimer: De entiteiten van de XM Group bieden diensten en toegang tot ons online handelsplatform op basis van uitsluitend-uitvoering, waardoor een persoon de beschikbare content op of via de website kan bekijken en/of gebruiken, zonder dat dit is bedoeld voor wijziging of uitbreiding. Dergelijk(e) toegang en gebruik vallen onder: (i) de algemene voorwaarden; (ii) risicowaarschuwingen; en de (iii) volledige disclaimer. Dergelijke content wordt daarom alleen aangeboden als algemene informatie. Wees u er daarnaast vooral van bewust dat de inhoud op ons online handelsplatform geen verzoek of aanbieding omvat om transacties op de financiële markten uit te voeren. Het beleggen op welke financiële markt dan ook vormt een aanzienlijk risico voor uw vermogen.
Alle materialen die op ons online handelsplatform worden gepubliceerd zijn bedoeld voor educatieve/informatieve doeleinden en omvatten geen – en moeten niet worden beschouwd als het bevatten van – financieel, vermogensbelastings- of handelsadvies en aanbevelingen, of een overzicht van onze handelsprijzen, of een aanbod of aanvraag van een transactie in financiële instrumenten of ongevraagde financiële promoties voor u.
Alle content van derden, alsmede content die is voorbereid door XM, zoals opinies, nieuws, onderzoeken, analyses, prijzen en andere informatie of koppelingen naar externe websites op deze website worden aangeboden op een 'zoals-ze-zijn'-basis, als algemene marktcommentaren, en vormen geen beleggingsadvies. Voor zover dat content wordt beschouwd als beleggingsonderzoek, moet u zich ervan bewust zijn en accepteren dat de content niet bedoeld was en niet is voorbereid in overeenstemming met de wettelijke vereisten die zijn opgesteld om de onafhankelijkheid van beleggingsonderzoek te bevorderen en als zodanig onder de geldende wetgeving en richtlijnen moet worden beschouwd als marketingcommunicatie. Zorg ervoor dat u onze Mededeling over niet-onafhankelijk beleggingsonderzoek en risicowaarschuwing in verband met de voorgaande informatie doorneemt en begrijpt; die kunt u hier lezen.
