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Special Reports

XM Research - 2 hours ago

Volatility remains high as US voters elect a new president – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility climbs to a new monthly highVolatility remains very elevated in both gold and silverStock indices experience a jump in volatilityEuro/dollar volatility has climbed to a new 30-day high, as market participants are preparing for the US presidential election and Thursday’s Fed meeting. This heightened volatility is being observed across the FX space, including in the yen pairs.

XM Research - 1 day ago

Preparing for a US election marathon

The world is preparing for the November 5 US presidential electionVoting times vary across states but the focus will be on seven key statesCandidates need to win most of these swing states to secure victory“Safe” states will be called quickly but the final result might be delayed for daysThe countdown to the US presidential election is almost finished, with the polls opening on Tuesday.

XM Research - 1 week ago

Volatility jumps as markets prepare for action-packed period – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility climbs to a new monthly highVolatility remains very elevated in both gold and silverStock indices continue to experience average volatility Euro/dollar volatility continues to increase, achieving a new 30-day high, as the markets are preparing for Friday’s jobs report, and next week’s US presidential election and the Fed meeting.

XM Research - 2 weeks ago

US elections update: The race to the White House tightens

Trump closes in on Harris’s lead in the pollsNeck and neck race spurs market jittersOutcome still hinges on battleground statesTrump narrows the gapThe time for Americans to vote for a new president is drawing ever closer, but who will win on November 5 is looking a lot less certain now than it did when Vice President Kamala Harris entered the race.

XM Research - 2 weeks agoNeutral

Japanese election could hold the key to the next BoJ hike

Japanese snap election will be held on Saturday, October 27Governing LDP party vying for another win but outcome uncertainBoJ’s outlook could be clouded if LPD doesn’t achieve majorityYen could suffer if the new government focuses more on fiscal policy Japan holds elections on October 27Just a few days before the key US presidential election and the much-discussed November 7 Fed meeting, Japan will hold a general election.

XM Research - 2 weeks agoNeutral

Volatility remains elevated in FX space and commodities – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility reaches new 30-day highVolatility in both gold and silver jumpsStock indices continue to experience average volatilityEuro/dollar volatility has climbed to the highest level of the past month, as the ECB delivered its much-expected rate cut and the discussion about the November Fed meeting is underway. But more importantly, the market is preparing for the November 5 US presidential election.

XM Research - 3 weeks agoNeutral

Volatility eases slightly as the risk on sentiment lingers – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility is very close to the last 30 days’ highVolatility in commodities remains elevatedStock indices experience above average volatility Euro/dollar volatility remains very high, close to the highest level of the past month, as the US dollar continues to rally following a series of strong US data and some hawkish Fedspeak. Interestingly, the volatility of yen crosses has crashed across the board, with the yen surrendering another good part of its recent sizeable gains on th

XM Research - 4 weeks agoNeutral

What’s in store for gold in Q4?

Gold outperforms other asset classes; provides protection against risk eventsTailwinds could persist as Q4 agenda includes US election, Fed policy, and geopolitical risksTechnical outlook remains positive; another bull run could commencePreviously in Q3It’s a golden age for gold which has been exhibiting an unprecedented performance so far this year, adding another 14% to its value in the third quarter despite global central bank reserves stabilizing, to trade up by 42% year-on-year.

XM Research - 4 weeks agoNeutral

Volatility skyrockets across the board after an eventful week – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility surges to the highest level of the monthVolatility in commodities reaches new monthly highStock indices experience very high volatilityEuro/dollar volatility has reached the highest level of the past 30 days, as the FX market was rocked by the strong US labour market report, denting the possibility of another 50bps Fed rate cut in November.

XM Research - 1 month agoNeutral

Volatility jumps as market prepares for an action-packed week – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility surges as dollar remains on the back footVolatility in commodities reaches new monthly high, led by oilStock indices experience strong volatility amidst a tentative rallyEuro/dollar volatility has jumped over the past week, as the FX market is whipsawed by the possibility of another strong Fed rate cut. Similarly, volatility of most yen crosses has risen aggressively, with the yen surrendering part of its recent sizeable gains on the back of weaker data and a general el

XM Research - 1 month agoNeutral

Central banks easing: the race to the bottom has officially commenced

Fed to lead the easing spree in the fourth quarter of 2024A conservative approach is priced in for ECB and BoESNB, BoC and RBNZ to ease further; RBA could follow suitBoJ could surprise with another rate hike by year-end More rate cuts on the way in the fourth quarter of 2024Another round of central banks’ meetings has been completed with the Fed stealing the show by announcing the start of its easing cycle.

XM Research - 1 month ago

Volatility drops across the board after the Fed meeting – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low as dollar underperforms Volatility in commodities stays elevated, led by gold Stock indices experience decent volatility despite the rally Euro/dollar volatility has eased a bit over the past week, as the market digested the strong Fed rate cut. Similarly, volatility of most yen crosses has dropped aggressively lower, as the yen surrendered part of its recent sizeable gains, despite the fact that the BoJ maintained the chances of another rate

XM Research - 2 months ago

Stocks’ positive reaction might continue until the second Fed rate cut

The Fed announced its first rate cut with a relatively balanced rhetoric History points to a high probability of back-to-back moves Dollar/yen and Treasury yields tend to drop until the second rate cut Barring a major event, stocks’ positive performance could continue The Fed commenced its monetary policy easing cycle in aggressive fashion by announcing an almost unanimous decision to cut rates by 50bps.

XM Research - 2 months ago

How will the US elections impact the markets?

Harris takes the lead in most polls as Trump’s campaign stalls But what does a Harris win mean for stocks and the US dollar? Can Trump turn things around and what would investors prefer? Late entry The US presidential election is drawing ever closer and there can be no doubt that the race heated up after President Joe Biden abruptly dropped out.

XM Research - 2 months ago

Volatility eases a bit ahead of the key Fed meeting – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low as dollar weakness lingers Volatility in commodities stays elevated led by silver Stock indices and bitcoin experience lower volatility Euro/dollar volatility remains low as the market is preparing for the key Fed meeting on Wednesday that could deliver a previously unexpected 50bps rate cut. Amidst these conditions, yen pairs are experiencing the highest volatility of the past month as the yen continues to outperform its main counterparties on

XM Research - 2 months ago

Equities volatility jumps as sentiment turns negative – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low as market digests US data prints Volatility in commodities remains low apart from oil Stock indices and bitcoin experience much higher volatility Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, has eased in the past few days as the market is digesting last week’s US labour market data and preparing for Wednesday’s CPI report, which could play a role in determining the size of the imminent Fed rate cut.

XM Research - 2 months ago

Stocks could suffer after the September Fed rate cut

US labour market data to determine the size of the first Fed rate cut History points to an increased possibility of a 50bps move Analysis reveals sizeable equities’ weakness after the initial cut Following Fed Chairman Powell's appearance at the Jackson Hole Symposium and this indirect announcement of the much-discussed Fed rate cut, the market is counting down to the September 18 meeting.

XM Research - 2 months ago

Can gold prices surge to new all-time highs by year end?

Gold increases 21% so far this year US data and geopolitical tensions are driving gold Bigger picture remains strongly positive Gold still soaring in long-term view Gold has been performing remarkably well so far this year, with a gain of 21% and a record high of $2,531 on August 20. The impending release of US economic data, increased geopolitical tensions, and hints of nearing rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are the main driving forces behind this rise.

XM Research - 2 months ago

Volatility eases across the board ahead of key US data – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility drops as market prepares for an action-packed week Volatility in commodities crashes to new lows apart from oil Stock indices and bitcoin experience much lower volatility Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, has eased in the past few days as the market is preparing for this week’s US labour market data releases that could play a key role in determining the size of the imminent rate cut by the Fed.

XM Research - 3 months ago

Volatility ebbs as recession fears evaporate – Volatility Watch

Besides EUR/USD, FX volatility subsides as markets digest rate path repricing Volatility in precious metals is still high, but oil enters calmer waters Stock indices and Bitcoin volatility at their bottom of their 30-day range Recession concerns from a weaker-than-expected July NFP report have been fading, though they led to notable adjustments in expectations about major central banks' interest rate paths. This week, investors are focused on Jerome Powell's Jackson H

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