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SUGAR-MAR25

XM 리서치

XM 리서치 - 2 시간 전Neutral

Quick Brief – PCE inflation data not a game changer

Headline PCE inflation slows, but core rate ticks upInvestors continue to expect 75bps of additional cuts this yearFocus now turns to next week’s ISM PMI and NFP dataThe headline PCE inflation rate dropped to 2.2% y/y in August, confounding expectations of a smaller drop to 2.3% from 2.5%. The more important core PCE rate ticked up to 2.7% y/y fr
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XM 리서치 - 3 시간 전Neutral

Technical Analysis – Ethereum hovers in the 2,650 area

Cryptos benefit from the improved risk sentimentEthereum is trading above the 50-day SMAMomentum indicators remain bullishEthereum is recording a green session today, recovering its mid-week weakness and testing the resistance set by the 2,667 level. The improved risk sentiment in equity markets has boosted demand for cryptocurrencies, helping ethereum to quickly bounce back from its early September trough and to climb above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).In the meantime, the momentum in
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XM 리서치 - 5 시간 전Neutral

Week Ahead – NFP on tap amid bets of another bold Fed rate cut

Investors see decent chance of another 50bps cut in NovemberFed speakers, ISM PMIs and NFP to shape rate cut betsEurozone CPI data awaited amid bets for more ECB cutsChina PMIs and BoJ Summary of Opinions also on tapWill the Fed opt for a back-to-back 50bps rate cut?Although the dollar slipped after the Fed decided to cut interest rates by 50bps and to signal that another 50bps worth of reductions are on the cards for the remainder of the year, the currency traded in a consolidative manner this
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XM 리서치 - 5 시간 전Bearish

Technical Analysis – USDJPY plummets after hitting 50-day SMA

USDJPY falls back below downtrend lineMomentum oscillators shift southUSDJPY had a bullish start today, meeting the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 146.20 but returning quickly to the downside. The price fell back below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the bearish move from 161.94 to 139.56 at 144.80, as well as the short-term descending trend line.From a technical perspective, the RSI is sloping down from the 50 level, while the stochastic posted a bearish crossover within its%K
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XM 리서치 - 6 시간 전Neutral

CHFJPY is trading lower today, a tad below a busy areaThis is the first red candle after a barrage of green sessionsMomentum indicators are inconclusive at this stage CHFJPY is well in the red today after testing but failing to close above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Importantly, ex-defence minister Ishiba’s win at the LDP leadership contest over minister Takaichi, a strong critic of BoJ's tightening strategy, has clearly contributed to yen’s strength, and put a stop to th
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XM 리서치 - 6 시간 전Neutral

Daily Comment – Markets maintain upbeat mood ahead of PCE inflation

China stimulus and rate cut bets propel stocks higherDollar caught in choppy trading as crucial inflation data awaitedYen surges as new LDP leader in favour of rate hikes set to become PMGold scales fresh record highs before easingMarkets lifted by China’s stimulus blitzEquity markets look set to finish the week in a buoyant mood amid renewed optimism about China’s economic prospects following Beijing’s latest stimulus efforts and as the Fed and ECB strive to achieve a soft landing.Earlier
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XM 리서치 - 8 시간 전Neutral

Technical Analysis – GBPJPY has an unstoppable rally to 2-month high

GBPJPY surpasses 50- and 200-day SMAsStochastic and RSI tick up in overbought regionsGBPJPY has created an aggressive bullish rally to a fresh two-month high of  195.95 over the last ten days following the strong rebound off the 183.70 support level. The market successfully surpassed the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 195.00 round nu
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XM 리서치 - 8 시간 전Neutral

Technical Analysis – Will the AUDUSD rally pause prove temporary?

AUDUSD continues to experience high volatilityIt tests the resistance set by a long-term trendlineMomentum indicators send a mixed message AUDUSD is trading sideways today, following three very volatile sessions that pushed it to the highest level since February 2023. It is currently testing the resistance set by the February 25, 2021 downward sloping trendline, with today’s US PCE report potentially proving pivotal in the outcome of this battle.
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XM 리서치 - 1 일 전Neutral

Central banks easing: the race to the bottom has officially commenced

Fed to lead the easing spree in the fourth quarter of 2024A conservative approach is priced in for ECB and BoESNB, BoC and RBNZ to ease further; RBA could follow suitBoJ could surprise with another rate hike by year-end More rate cuts on the way in the fourth quarter of 2024Another round of central banks’ meetings has been completed with the Fed stealing the show by announcing the start of its easing cycle.
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XM 리서치 - 1 일 전Bearish

Technical Analysis – US dollar index may visit 14-month low again

US dollar index dived beneath 100.00 on Wednesday’s sessionTechnical oscillators tick downThe US dollar index has lost its positive momentum after rebounding off the 14-month low of 99.90. In the short term, the market could retain the bearish structure as the RSI ticks lower below the neutral level of 50, while the stochastic is heading down.If the price continues south, Wednesday's low of 99.90 could provide immediate support before the index touches the 99.25 bottom, taken from the lo
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XM 리서치 - 1 일 전Bullish

Technical Analysis – Silver on the verge of a major bullish trend reversal

Silver bulls roar back; make efforts to resume long-term uptrend above 32.49Price hovers near overbought zone; trend signals remain encouraging above 31.50Silver made a comeback on Thursday after a temporary pause, with scope to challenge May’s eleven-year high of 32.49, which it didn’t reach in July.The rebound near the broken resistance line at 30.60 indicated a bullish trend reversal recently, and although the RSI and stochastic oscillator are near overbought levels, they haven’t peaked
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XM 리서치 - 1 일 전Neutral

Midweek Technical Look – USDJPY, GBPUSD, Gold

Gold follows bullish pattern; looks for fresh buying above 2,650  GBPUSD comes under pressure after 2½-year high; downside pressure may persistUSDJPY makes progress but is not out of the woods
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XM 리서치 - 1 일 전Bearish

Technical Analysis – USDJPY flirts with short-term diagonal line

USDJPY tries to surpass the 23.6% FibonacciMACD and RSI gain momentumUSDJPY is challenging the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 161.94 to 139.56 at 144.80, as well as the very short-term downtrend line, creating a bullish correction from the 14-month low of 139.56.The technical oscillators are currently mirroring the market's latest upside movement.
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XM 리서치 - 1 일 전Neutral

Daily Comment – Dollar bounces back as stocks lifted from more Chinese stimulus

US dollar rebounds ahead of Powell and other Fed speakersUS futures also turn positive as Asian rally continues on China optimismSNB cuts rates by 25 bps as expected as ECB mulls October cutDovish Fed bets can’t keep the dollar downThe US dollar is holding firm on Thursday after bouncing back strongly on Wednesday to recoup some of its post-Fed losses.
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XM 리서치 - 1 일 전Neutral

Quick Brief – Oil bears take the driver’s seat

Oil tumbles as Saudi Arabia prepares to drop $100 price targetPBoC measures fail to provide supportMarket ignores US inventories and tensions in the Middle EastOil prices fell around 2.5% on Thursday due to easing concerns about supply disruptions in Libya after factions signed an official accord on appointing a central bank governor, thereby ending the dispute regarding their central bank and oil revenue.The tumble accelerated today after the Financial Times reported that Saudi Arabia is ready
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XM 리서치 - 1 일 전Bearish

Technical Analysis – WTI crude oil plunges in descending tendency

WTI dives 7% from 73.30200-day SMA moves horizontallyMACD and stochastics confirm bearish outlookWTI crude oil prices have lost more than 7% over the last couple of days after the pullback from the 73.30 resistance level. The commodity is also declining beneath the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) with the next support coming from the 17-month lo
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XM 리서치 - 2 일 전Bullish

Copper futures jump above 4.50 but yet to reach 50% FibonacciSigns of overbought market might limit further gains in short termCopper futures (HGCOP) have climbed to more than two-month highs, reaching 4.5495 earlier today. But the price has now reversed lower amid overbought conditions in the momentum indicators. The RSI is about to cross into the overbought 70 region, but the stochastics have already entered it.The pullback comes as the industrial metal approaches the 50% Fibonacci retracement
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XM 리서치 - 2 일 전Bearish

Technical Analysis - USDCAD tumbles and hits support near 1.3425

USDCAD falls sharply, accelerating prevailing retreatBoth the RSI and the MACD detect bearish momentumA break below 1.3425 could extend the fall towards 1.3350For the outlook to brighten, a rebound above 1.3645 may be neededUSDCAD fell sharply on Tuesday, extending the retreat that started on Thursday after the pair hit resistance at 1.3645, slightly above the lower bound of the sideways range that contained most of the price action between April and August.Yesterday’s tumble was paused today
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XM 리서치 - 2 일 전Bullish

Technical Analysis – GBPUSD retreats from 2½-year high

GBPUSD may create bearish correction in short-termStochastic and RSI turn downGBPUSD is ticking lower after it posted a fresh two-and-a-half-year high of 1.3428 during today’s session.According to technical oscillators, the stochastic is creating a bearish crossover between its %K and %D lines in the overbought region, while the RSI is falling from the 70 level.
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XM 리서치 - 2 일 전Neutral

Technical Analysis – GBPAUD correction might have legs

GBPAUD in the red again todayBoth BoE and RBA have refrained from cutting ratesMomentum indicators are inconclusive at this stage GBPAUD is trading slightly lower today, within the busy 1.9440-1.9521 area, and close to the recent peak of 1.9699. GBPAUD has managed to break below both the July 10, 2024 trendline and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), but a stronger correction is needed to validate this move.
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