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GBPUSD


XM 리서치

Market Comment – Markets perk up as soft PPI sets the tone ahead of US CPI

Stocks perk up after soft US producer prices, all eyes now on CPI report Kiwi slumps after RBNZ cuts rates and signals more to come Pound also slips on weaker-than-expected UK inflation data Gold holds near record high as dollar skids, ME tensions mount Mood brightens ahead of US CPI data The rebound in equity markets gained further traction on Tuesday after US producer prices rose less than expected in July, raising hopes that today’s report on consumer prices will also sur
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Market anxiety fades but volatility remains high – Volatility Watch

FX volatility smoothens a little bit as markets digest rate path repricing Volatility in commodities still high amid resurgence of geopolitical tensions Stock indices and Bitcoin still volatile while traders unwind bearish bets  Recession concerns from a weaker-than-expected NFP report two weeks ago have been fading, though they led to notable adjustments in expectations about major central banks' interest rate paths.
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Market Comment – Stocks edge up in calm before the storm

Stocks edge higher as gold benefits from geopolitical risks Pound rallies despite shock claimant count change French political issues return to the foreground RBNZ meeting could lead to significant kiwi underperformance Stocks edge higher as gold climb continues  It was another uneventful session yesterday with most stock indices continuing to recover from last week’s rout.
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD battles with 50-day SMA

GBPUSD advances after its bounce off 200-day SMA A potential breach of 50-day SMA could improve outlook Oscillators suggest strengthening positive momentum GBPUSD had been on the rise following its deflection at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on August 8. After four consecutive daily green candlesticks, the pair is on track to reclaim its 50-day SMA as the momentum indicators are hinting at an improving positive bias.
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD rebounds near 200-SMA but not bullish yet

GBPUSD shifts to recovery mood but not out of the woods yet Technical indicators cannot confirm bullish bias A break above 1.2840 is needed to bring new buyers   GBPUSD rotated northwards after reaching its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the long-term support trendline from the 2021 trough near 1.2760. The latter initiated the ongoing bullish trend back in April and could assist the market once again.
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Week Ahead – US CPI to test market nerves, RBNZ might cut rates

Market turmoil has eased, but will US CPI stir things up again? Crucial week for sterling as UK CPI, GDP and retail sales on the way The RBNZ is edging closer to a rate cut, but will it be next week? Japanese GDP, Australian jobs and Chinese data eyed too US economy worries take front and centre The panic about the US economy being on the verge of a recession has mostly eased but markets remain jittery.
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Midweek Technical Look – GBPUSD, NZDUSD, Oil

GBPUSD retains bearish bias as key support region comes under the spotlight NZDUSD charts bullish double bottom pattern as RBNZ rate decision awaited  WTI oil futures rotate higher after touching important pivot area  
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD drops out of bullish channel

GBPUSD trims more gains after bearish channel breakout  Technical signals remain negative; support at 1.2670   GBPUSD bears powered up on Tuesday with scope to fight the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the support trendline from the 2022 low at 1.2670, which triggered the April-July bull trend. Notably, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of this upleg is in the neighborhood.
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Market angst pushes volatility higher across the board – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility skyrockets as recession fears resurface Volatility in commodities jumps as geopolitics takes centre stage Stock indices experience much stronger volatility, decoupling from Bitcoin Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, jumped to the highest level of the past month as fears of recession, on the back of last Friday’s weak US labour market report, resulted in the market pricing in an aggressive easing path for most central banks during 2024.
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Market Comment – US slowdown fears grip markets ahead of NFP

Tech stocks lead selloff in equities amid recession fears, disappointing earnings Yen extends gains as safe havens rally but dollar mixed Will today’s nonfarm payrolls report calm markets or add to jitters? Carnage returns to equity markets The mid-week bounce on Wall Street didn’t last long as rate-cut optimism turned to gloom following soft economic data out of the US on Thursday.
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD in freefall after BoE decision

GBPUSD tests ascending trend line Stochastics and RSI indicate negative moves GBPUSD plunged towards the medium-term ascending trend line with strong momentum, breaking the 1.2800 psychological level after the BoE's decision to cut rates. According to the technical oscillators, the stochastic is posting a bearish crossover within its %K and %D lines slightly above the oversold area, while the RSI is diving beneath the neutral threshold of 50. More downside pressures could ope
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Volatility remains elevated across the board – Volatility Watch

Yen crosses are very volatile after BoJ hike aids yen's recovery Volatility in commodity sphere jumps amid geopolitical flare ups Global stock indices in turbulent waters but for different reasons   Volatility in yen crosses has increased considerably as the latest interest rate hike by the BoJ has added more fuel to the yen’s recovery from multi-year lows against major peers.
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Market Comment – Fed hints at cut but dollar unbruised, pound slips ahead of BoE

Fed’s Powell opens the door to a September rate cut, stocks rebound But dollar only tumbles against the yen, which surges after BoJ hike BoE rate cut bets intensity ahead of decision, pressuring sterling Oil comes back to life as ME conflict takes another dangerous turn Powell flags a possible September cut The Federal Reserve delivered no surprises on Wednesday, keeping interest rates unchanged as expected.
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD extends pullback from 1-year high

GBPUSD declines steadily from 1-year high The bears eye the 50-day SMA as next target Momentum indicators ease but remain positively tilted GBPUSD had been on the rise following its bounce off the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) in late June. Although the pair posted a fresh one-year high of 1.3043 on July 17, it has been undergoing a downside correction since then.
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Weekly Technical Outlook– USDJPY, GBPUSD, Gold

USDJPY rapid fall pauses near key support region as investors wait for BoJ tightening Gold shows signs of recovery ahead of FOMC rate decision and nonfarm payrolls Will the BoE meeting send GBPUSD lower? Focus turns lower to 1.2750 area   BoJ rate decision --> USDJPY Central bank meetings will take center stage this week, with the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement on Wednesday drawing the most attention as investors speculate about the possibility of double tightening mea
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Market Comment – Yen on the front foot as BoJ hike eyed; stocks stage a recovery

Yen looks to extend gains as BoJ set to press ahead with policy normalization Wall Street bounces back on hopes of upbeat tech earnings, Fed rate cut signal Gold and oil in tepid rebound despite heightened tensions in Middle East BoJ to kick off trio of central bank meetings The Japanese yen edged higher on Monday as investors anticipate the Bank of Japan to take the next steps in its policy normalization plans when it announces its latest decision on Wednesday.
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Week Ahead – BoJ, Fed and BoE meetings: a hike, a hold and a cut?

A trio of central bank decisions coming up from the BoJ, Fed and BoE One might hike, one might stand pat and the other cut rates ECB to also be in focus as Eurozone flash GDP and CPI data are due Week will culminate with crucial US jobs report BoJ expected to taper; will it hike too? The Bank of Japan has barely left the headlines lately.
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD pauses downside movements

GBPUSD finds support at 20-day SMA Holds well above rising trend line Stochastics and RSI indicate upside moves GBPUSD pulled back from the one-year high of 1.3045 in the previous week, meeting the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), which may act as strong support level for traders. According to the technical oscillators, the stochastic is standing in the oversold area, but posted a bullish crossover within its %K and %D lines, while the RSI is ticking up above the neutral thresh
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Midweek Technical Look – USDJPY, GBPUSD, EURGBP

USDJPY confirms bearish trend reversal after brutal decline; key support nearby GBPUSD escapes broad sell-off with little injuries, but downside risks remain EURGBP set the ground for a bullish pivot within bearish channel
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Heightened volatility across all asset classes – Volatility Watch

• Yen crosses are volatile as they retreat from multi-year highs • Volatility in oil and gold surges, Bitcoin follows suit • US equities exhibit higher volatility amid correction fears The euro and dollar pairs maintain low volatility ahead of the US PCE release on Friday and a quiet week on the European data front. On the flipside, volatility in yen crosses has increased considerably as the pairs have been extending their latest pullbacks from multi-year highs.
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