Thursday data jamboree: claims, layoffs, services PMI, factory orders

Reuters

Thursday data jamboree: claims, layoffs, services PMI, factory orders

2024 10월 3, 오후 3:32 GMT

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Main U.S. indexes slightly lower; Dow Industrials off ~0.4%

Energy best S&P sector performer, Real estate leads decliners

Euro STOXX 600 index down ~1%

Dollar up; crude up ~4%; gold, bitcoin dip

U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~3.82%

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THURSDAY DATA JAMBOREE: CLAIMS, LAYOFFS, SERVICES PMI, FACTORY ORDERS

A spate of data on Thursday prepped the stage and acted as prologue for Friday's much anticipated employment report, which could either justify or challenge the Fed's double-dip 50 basis point rate cut last month and help set policy expectations for the central bank through the end of the year.

Last week, 225,000 U.S. workers joined the queue outside the unemployment office USJOB=ECI, a 2.7% increase over the prior week and 5,000 north of consensus.

The underlying trend, as expressed by the four-week moving average of initial claims, is essentially sideways.

But a massive furlough at Boeing BA.N and the effects of Hurricane Helene are likely to put upward pressure on the Labor Department's data in the weeks ahead.

"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy," writes Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. "Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting."

Ongoing claims USJOBN=ECI, reported on a one-week lag, repeated that theme, staying essentially unchanged at 1.826 million. It's a number that remains well above the 1.7 million pre-COVID normal, and suggests that pink slip recipients are having a rougher time finding suitable replacement gigs.

Speaking of pink slips, corporate America announced it would be handing out 72,821 of them last month.

Executive outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas' (CGC) planned layoffs USCHAL=ECI showed announced job cuts decreased by 4.0% in September.

"Leading indicators still suggest that layoffs will remain at a low level, but with a gradually rising trend," says Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "Our seasonally adjusted version of Challenger’s measure of layoff announcements, released today, was 9% above its trailing 12-month average in September."

Let's turn now to expansion in services sector, which accelerated more than expected last month.

The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) USNPMI=ECI added 3.4 points to land at 54.9, comfortably north of 50, the PMI dividing line between expansion and contraction.

Consensus called for a reading of 51.7.

Scratching below the headline, new orders and production surged more than 6%, and while backlog improved it remained below 50.

The employment component dipped into contraction and prices paid - an inflation predictor - gained some heat.

"Investors should monitor the inflation dynamics as the Fed intensified their efforts to keep the job market from deteriorating," says Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. "Although not our base case, markets are increasingly worried about inflation reaccelerating during a time when the Fed wants to cuts rates."

Not to be outdone, S&P Global also released its final take on services PMI USMPSF=ECI, showing a slight deceleration to an even 54.

"Companies have become increasingly concerned about the outlook," says Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global. "With business confidence slumping in September amid uncertainty caused by the upcoming election as well as perceptions of rising recession risks."

Here's a comparison of the dueling PMI indexes, who apply different weightings to their subcomponents (new orders, employment, etc), looking at how closely (or not) they agree:

And finally, factory activity USFORD=ECI decreased nominally in August, falling by a barely noticeable 0.1%.

On the upside, new orders for core capital goods, viewed by many as a barometer of U.S. corporate capex plans, was revised higher, to 0.3% from 0.2%.

(Stephen Culp)

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FOR THURSDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:

U.S. STOCKS SLIP IN EARLY TRADE - CLICK HERE

UBS SEES ABOUT 7% UPSIDE IN MSCI AC WORLD INDEX - CLICK HERE

DOWN THE STRETCH, MOMENTUM INCREASES ITS LEAD - CLICK HERE

CHINA STIMULUS OFFERS ARRAY OF OPPORTUNITIES - JANUS HENDERSON - CLICK HERE

STOXX ERASES CHINA RALLY, AUTOS DRAG - CLICK HERE

EUROPEAN FUTURES EASE, TESCO UPS PROFIT FORECAST - CLICK HERE

PMIS TO PAVE THE WAY FOR RATE CUTS - CLICK HERE