Stocks jump on Election Day as investors eye outcome
Polls show tight race, Trump leads in betting markets
Trump-linked stock sees large swings
Palantir soars after results
Updates to market close
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, Nov 5 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed sharply higher in a broad rally on Tuesday after data signaled a solid economy,but investors bracedfor volatile trading this weekas voting was underway inan extremelytight U.S. presidential election.
The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing purchasing managers index, a gauge of the services sector,accelerated to 56.0 last month, its highest since August 2022, from 54.9 the prior month and above the 53.8 expected by economists polled by Reuters.
The election outcome couldtake days to be finalized as the latest polls showedthe racebetween Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, whichhas impacted markets in recent months, was too close to call.
The former president's odds improved on Tuesday in betting markets thatmany investors see as election indicators.
"The market continues to try and price for what is the outcome of this election," said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Seattle.
"It's been so tight and even if we look at the price range we've been in, we've been in a tight price range, and so what's really moving us is marginal positioning for one result or the other."
"Both the bond market and the equity market are looking at Congress as important as well," he added. "Most base cases are for divided government, but this election is so close we could get any outcome. That's the challenge."
According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 70.42 points, or 1.23%, to end at 5,783.11 points, while the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC gained 259.19 points, or 1.43%, to 18,439.17. The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 431.42 points, or 1.04%, to 42,227.74.
Volatility was more pronounced in government debt and currency markets. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield US10YT=RR rose more than 10 basis points to a high of 4.366% before paring gains on asolid auction, and was last down slightly on the day.
Equity markets avoided Monday's volatility on expectations of a soft landing for the economy, bolsteredby corporate earnings, lower interest rates and a resilient labor market.
Other economic data on Tuesday showed the trade deficit hit a 2-1/2 year high in September, as domestic demand draws in imports while concerns about higher tariffs under a Trump presidency have led to a front loading of imports by businesses.
Still, the CBOE Volatility Index .VIX, also known as Wall Street's "Fear Gauge," was slightly higher than its long-term average of 19.46, although it had eased from a near-two month high hit last week of 23.42.
Industrials.SPLRCI and consumer discretionary .SPLRCD led S&P 500 sectors higher.
Investors are also keeping an eye on Congressional elections to determine the balance of power in Washington. Many analysts predict a split government, which would limit the ability of the president to enact significant policy changes.
Stocks viewed as proxies on a win for the former president experiencedlarge swings, with Trump Media & Technology Group DJT.O climbing as much as 18.64% and dropping as much as8.42%, while also being halted for volatility multiple times.
Crypto stocks tracked bitcoin BTC= higher, with the cryptocurrency up roughly 4%, as Trumphas positioned himself as an ally tothe sector.
PalantirPLTR.N surgedto a record high after the data analytics firm raised its annual revenue forecast for the third time.
TheFederal Reserve will announce its latest policy statement on Thursday. Markets have almost completely priced in a 25-basis point interest rate cut, but theoutlook for the path of futureeasing is less certain given the U.S. economy's strength.
USA-ELECTION/STOCKS Wall Street performs better under a unified government but... https://reut.rs/4hbOKMJ
ISM services PMI https://reut.rs/48ET1ok
Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Richard Chang
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