Global business survey: Recession worries contained, Trump viewed as most severe geopolitical risk
Nasdaq, S&P 500 slip, Dow now ~flat
Utilities lead S&P 500 sector gainers; Industrials weakest group
Euro STOXX 600 index down ~1.4%
Dollar, bitcoin ~flat; crude up slightly; gold up ~1.5%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges down to ~3.73%
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
GLOBAL BUSINESS SURVEY: RECESSION WORRIES CONTAINED, TRUMP VIEWED AS MOST SEVERE GEOPOLITICAL RISK
Global economic softening and lingering geopolitical question marks are the topics of two global surveys conducted by economic advisory firm Oxford Economics.
First, its flash Global Risk Survey, was answered online by 150 companies from September 6-17, before the Fed's rate decision.
It showed that "despite recent market jitters over the potential for a US recession, less than 1-in-10 respondents think a sharp slowing in US growth is likely over the coming twelve months," the note says.
The prospects of a second Trump administration tops the list of geopolitical concerns.
"Fears over the potential fall-out from a Trump presidency have increased for the third consecutive survey," writes Jamie Thompson, head of macro scenarios at Oxford Economics. "More than two-fifths of businesses now cite a Trump presidency as a very significant risk to the global economy – a greater proportion than for any other geopolitical risk."
Other geopolitical concerns have abated, including an escalation of Middle East tensions, and situations involving China-Taiwan and Russia-NATO.
Second, in parsing the results of its Global Business Sentiment survey, Oxford Economics says that while respondents have become more pessimistic about near-term prospects for the global economy, businesses continue to view a 2025 global recession as unlikely.
The mean year-ahead growth expectation "has edged lower and is 0.5 percentage points below the average pace of growth in the past decade," Thompson says.
Global recession jitters are building some steam.
But those jitters are contained.
"Worries are still relatively contained. Businesses see a 1-in-8 chance of global recession in 2025, and a 1-in-40 chance of an economic slump on the scale experienced during the global financial crisis," Thompson adds.
The chart below, courtesy of Oxford Economics, shows how the perceived probability of a mild to severe global recession have increased since July:
(Stephen Culp)
*****
FOR FRIDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR BULLS BULK UP - AAII - CLICK HERE
NVIDIA HAS STRONG CORRELATION WITH SHORT INTEREST, S3 OFFERS INSIGHTS - CLICK HERE
HAPPY $5.3 TRILLION TRIPLE WITCHING FRIDAY - CLICK HERE
WALL STREET STEPS BACK AS IT DIGESTS FED WEEK - CLICK HERE
KBW SAYS WELLS FARGO'S LATEST REGULATORY WOES RAISE UNCERTAINTY AROUND ASSET CAP LIFT - CLICK HERE
S&P 500 INDEX: NEW HIGHS, BUT ORBS OF INFLUENCE ARE OUT THERE - CLICK HERE
TIME TO FIGHT THE FED? - CLICK HERE
BOE AND FED TO KEEP GOING THEIR SEPARATE WAYS - CLICK HERE
HIT THE SHOPS! SELL THE SHARES - CLICK HERE
CHINA WORRIES HIT EUROPE, AGAIN - CLICK HERE
SET FOR LOWER OPEN, BUT ALL GOOD REALLY - CLICK HERE
MORNING BID - BOJ BRINGS YEN INTO SHARPER FOCUS - CLICK HERE
Oxford Economics recession survey https://reut.rs/3XQkzTP
면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.
온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.
이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.
