From red tide to green tidal wave, US stocks poised to jump on Trump win

Reuters

From red tide to green tidal wave, US stocks poised to jump on Trump win

2024 11월 6, 오후 2:02 GMT

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U.S. equity index futures sharply higher; Russell 2000 surge >5%

Mortgage market index 191.4 vs 214.5 last week

Euro STOXX 600 index well off highs, now up ~0.4%

Dollar jumps; bitcoin rallies ~7%; gold, crude both down ~3%

U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield advances to ~4.44%

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FROM RED TIDE TO GREEN TIDAL WAVE, U.S. STOCKS POISED TO JUMP ON TRUMP WIN

U.S. equity index futures are surging with futures tied to the S&P 500 and Dow hitting record highs ahead of the open on Wednesday after Republican Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

E-mini S&P 500 futures EScv1 are jumping more than 2%, while those tracking the Dow 1YMcv1 are advancing nearly 3%. A thrust to new highs would keep the S&P 500 index .SPX focused on the 6k psychological level, as well as a long-term resistance line from its 1929 high, which, on a monthly basis, resides around 6,075 in November.

Trump's victory is also powering a rally in so-called Trump trades, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR is jumping, bitcoin BTC= has hit a record high and the dollar =USD is gaining.

According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points (bps) at the conclusion of this week's FOMC meeting on Thursday is still showing a virtual lock - at around 97% from 96% on Tuesday. The chance that the FOMC sits on its hands and leaves rates unchanged is now at about 3% from 4%.

Looking out to the December 17-18 FOMC meeting, the FedWatch Tool is still showing a bias for rates to be in the 4.25%-4.50% area vs the current target rate of 4.75%-5.00%. Conviction in that bias, however, has dipped since Tuesday. It now stands at about 69% vs 77%.

After ending Tuesday at 4.291%, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield US10YT=RR has hit a high of 4.479%. It's now around 4.44%. With this, it's battling the resistance line from its October 2023 high which is around 4.44%.

Nearly all S&P 500 sector SPDR ETFs are higher in premarket trade with financials XLF.P, up more than 5%, posting the biggest rise. Interest-sensitive utilities XLU.P, trading off more than 1%, are the sole loser.

The SPDR S&P regional banking ETF KRE.P is surging nearly 8%.

Regarding the election, Matt Orton, chief market strategist at Raymond James Investment Management, in St. Petersburg, FL said:

"I expected yields to move higher, but I am a little bit surprised just to the extent that we're seeing the 10-year Treasury move given the appreciation we've seen over the past month or so."

Orton added "I start to worry when yields cross the 4.50% mark. If we don't reverse that upward trend, I would be more reticent to add too much more risk until we hear from the Fed or get a little bit more guidance with respect to where terminal rates might lie."

"It'll be interesting to see whether or not equities will tolerate that type of increase in yields for too long."

Here is a premarket snapshot:

(Terence Gabriel, Carolina Mandl)

*****

FOR WEDNESDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:

U.S. FISCAL RISKS MAY LURE BOND VIGILANTES - CLICK HERE

STOXX EYES BEST DAY IN A YEAR, VOLATILITY CRUSHED - CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: FUTURES RISE, NOVO EARNINGS - CLICK HERE

'TRUMP TRADES' IN FULL SWING - CLICK HERE

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