Benchmark Treasury yield: Climbing into the Cloud

Reuters

Benchmark Treasury yield: Climbing into the Cloud

2024 10월 29, 오후 1:07 GMT

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Dow, S&P 500 futures dip; Nasdaq 100 ~flat

Euro STOXX 600 index ~flat

Dollar, gold rise; crude up >1%; bitcoin up >2%

U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~4.32%

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BENCHMARK TREASURY YIELD: CLIMBING INTO THE CLOUD

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR hit more than three-month highs on Monday, lifted by improved risk sentiment as Wall Street stocks rose ahead of key tech earnings reports this week, while weak government auctions highlighted soft demand before next week's U.S. presidential election.

The yield ended Monday at 4.278%. Now on Tuesday, it is pressing toward 4.33%.

That said, the yield may be stretched to the upside just as it is challenging the upper boundary of a key resistance zone:

Indeed, with this week's strength, the yield is now on track to rise for a seventh-straight week. The yield last rose more than six weeks in a row with a 12-week run of gains into its October 2022 high.

Meanwhile, the yield is also challenging a significant resistance zone in the form of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud.

Then yield closed back above the upper boundary of Cloud on a weekly basis in early February 2021. It then spent 181 weeks above the lower boundary until its early August break.

Since early August, and through last Friday, the yield has registered 12 weekly closes below the Cloud's upper boundary which now resides around 4.34%.

Thus, the recovery off of the 3.599% mid-September trough may still be seen as a counter-reaction as long as the yield tops out as it battles the Cloud.

A weekly close above the Cloud's upper boundary can instead suggest a major inflection back to the upside is underway. The next resistance is in the 4.46%-4.493% area, but if this rally is actually the early stages of a sustained advance, the yield's 5.021% October 2023 high should eventually be overwhelmed.

A weekly close below the Cloud's lower boundary, which now resides around 4.24%, can flip pressure back to the downside.

The 200-day moving average is now around 4.18%. The October 16 low was at 3.995%.

(Terence Gabriel)

*****

FOR TUESDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:

Q3 EARNINGS SEASON 'CRITICAL TEST' FOR BIG TECH - SAXO BANK - CLICK HERE

US ELECTIONS AND THE NEXT ECB RATE CUT LIVE MARKETS - CLICK HERE

STOXX INCHES UP, Q3 REPORTING STEAMS AHEAD - CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: HSBC BEAT AND MORE EARNINGS - CLICK HERE

RISK SPOTLIGHT SWINGS TO EARNINGS AVALANCHE - CLICK HERE

10YY10292024 https://tmsnrt.rs/4e4vjD0

(
Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)