Stocks, FX take a hit as US election results signal Trump comeback

Reuters

Stocks, FX take a hit as US election results signal Trump comeback

2024 11월 6 일, 오전 10:43 GMT

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Chinese banks sell dollars to cushion yuan's drop

Ukraine's dollar sovereign bonds rally

Mexican peso slumps to two-year low

Equities in India, Turkey jump as oil prices drop

MSCI EM stocks, FX index lose 0.6% each

Updated at 1006 GMT

By Johann M Cherian

Nov 6 (Reuters) -Emerging market currencies and stocks suffered broad losses on Wednesday as a likely U.S. election win by Republican Donald Trump sent the dollar sharply higher and raised the spectre of fresh trade barriers.

MSCI's index tracking currencies in major developing markets .MIEM00000CUS was on track for its biggest one-day drop since February 2023, down 0.6%, as the dollar strengthened over 1.4% and U.S. Treasury yields spiked.

A gauge for emerging market stocks .MSCIEF also lost 0.6%, and was close to a one-month low.

Trump claimed victory in the 2024 presidential contest after Fox News projected that he had defeated Democrat Kamala Harris, although other news outlets are yet to call the race for Trump.

Shaniel Ramjee, co-head of multi asset at Pictet Asset Management, said some high-beta currencies like the Mexican peso were reacting negatively to the likelihood of tariffs, with polls pointing to a Trump victory and the Republicans winning control of the Senate too.

A Republican Senate would mean less resistance to Trump's fiscal plans, which analysts say could stoke inflation, keep the dollar elevated and pressure inflows into emerging markets.

Mexico's peso MXN= weakened 2.6% to touch a more than two year low, trading last at 20.6 to the dollar. The Latin American country could face trade and immigration barriers, as Trump has threatened a 200% surcharge on auto exports to the United States.

Expectations that Trump could impose tariffs of 60% or more on goods from China, sent domestic Chinese stocks .SSEC, .CSI300 lower, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index .HSI slid 2.2%.

The yuan CNH= weakened 1.1% - its biggest one-day drop since Oct 2022, amid reports that lenders were selling dollars to cushion the yuan's decline.

Ukraine's hryvnia EUREAH= strengthened 2% and international sovereign bonds gained with some traders betting that a Trump presidency could mean a quicker end to the Ukraine-Russia war.

India's rupee INR=IN hit a record low and South Africa ZAR= declined 1.3%, while Turkey's lira TRYTOM=D3 firmed 0.2%.

Equity indexes in India .NSEI, .BSESN added over 1%, while Turkish stocks .XU100 jumped about 2.8%, as prices of crude oil - a key resource for the net importers - dropped over 1%.

In central and eastern Europe, Hungary's forint EURHUF= led declines with a 0.8% drop against the euro to mark a fresh 22-month low, while Poland's zloty EURPLN= weakened 0.3% ahead of a central bank interest rate decision later in the day.

Israel's shekel ILS= firmed 0.4%. Trump's stance on sanctions is perceived as detrimental to the country's arch rival Iran, along with others such as Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.

For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance in 2024 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance in 2024 https://tmsnrt.rs/2OusNdX

Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; editing by Philippa Fletcher and Christina Fincher

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