XM은(는) 미국 국적의 시민에게 서비스를 제공하지 않습니다.

Forint weakest in nearly two years as markets digest Trump win



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-Forint weakest in nearly two years as markets digest Trump win</title></head><body>

Forint weakest since December 2022, other currencies fall

Polish yields climb, stocks gain

Dollar strength after Trump win hits CEE FX

Trump policies could be negative for CEE economies

Higher US rates might slow monetary easing in CEE

Adds Poland rates decision, updates prices

By Anita Komuves and Karol Badohal

WARSAW/BUDAPEST, Nov 6 (Reuters) -Central Europe's currencies recovered on Wednesday after falling to multi-month lows earlier in the session, stocks rose more than 1% and bond yields climbed as markets digested the news Republican Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election.

Among currencies, Hungary's forint EURHUF= fell the most to hit its weakest level since December 2022 at 412.50 to the euro. By 1352 GMT, it traded 0.2% down on the day at 410.20.

The zloty EURPLN= touched a nearly five-month low before reversing course and trading up 0.2% at 4.35 to the euro as the Polish central bank kept rates on hold as expected at a Wednesday policy meeting.

The Czech crown EURCZK= brushed a three-month low at 25.450 per euro and but later steadied to 25.3380.

In Poland, Warsaw blue-chip stocks .WIG20 rose 0.8% and the 10-year bond PL10YT=RR yield climbed as much as 22 basis points to 5.8860%, staying off more than one-year highs above 6% touched last week. Budapest blue-chips .BUX hit an all-time high.

Markets were processing the return of Trump and the possible impact in the European Union's emerging east.

Analysts generally assume his plans for restricted immigration, tax cuts and tariffs, if enacted, would drive up inflation, potentially limiting how far U.S. interest rates might be lowered and strengthening the dollar.

Dollar strength has in recent weeks reduced the appetite for emerging markets currencies, like central Europe's.

Similarly, a higher U.S. interest rate path than expected will mean central banks in the region, mostly keen to cut interest rates, may not ease policy as quickly.

High rates also put pressure on countries such as Hungary, Poland and Romania that have swollen budget deficits. Already on Wednesday, Polish bond yields climbed.

"Higher interest rates in the U.S. are a problem for many EM countries with deficits and debts," ING said.

Following on from the Polish central bank decision on Wednesday, central banks in Romania and the Czech Republic also meet this week.

In addition, Adam Glapinski, the head of the Polish central bank, which has kept rates steady since two initial cuts toward the end of last year, will speak on Thursday.

The Czech central bank is widely forecast to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut when it meets Thursday, which would be the eighth reduction in a nearly one-year easing cycle.

Hungary has also been cutting interest rates but recently paused because of the forint's weakness.

Trump's return will bring new economic uncertainties and risks of U.S. tariffs disrupting trade.

Most central European economies are highly export-oriented and are struggling to recover from the inflation surges of the last few years, while factories face weakened demand from trade partners like Germany.

"The economic impact of potential Trump tariffs on European imports would of course be negative for a small open economy like the Czech Republic," Jaromir Gec, economist at Komercni Banka, said.

"However, the biggest unknown is what Trump policies will actually be and what was 'just part of the campaign'."



CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1452 CET





CURRENCIES






Latest

Previous

Daily

Change



trade

close

change

in 2024

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.3400

25.3380

-0.01%

-2.52%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

410.2000

409.5250

-0.16%

-6.59%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.3500

4.3589

+0.20%

-0.13%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9752

4.9755

+0.01%

-0.02%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9400

117.0600

+0.10%

+0.26%

Note: daily change

calculated from


1800 CET










Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




close

change

in 2024

Prague

.PX

1670.99

1666.4900

+0.27%

+18.17%

Budapest

.BUX

75661.91

74343.85

+1.77%

+24.81%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2254.05

2236.48

+0.79%

-3.80%

Bucharest

.BETI

17260.10

17236.29

+0.14%

+12.29%











Spread

Daily





vs Bund

change in

Czech Republic





spread

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.4410

-0.0130

+124bps

+8bps

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.8050

0.0110

+159bps

+9bps

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.0960

NULL

+169bps

#VALUE!

Poland






2-year

PL2YT=RR

5.0220

0.0120

+282bps

+11bps

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.5160

0.1290

+330bps

+20bps

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.8860

0.1890

+348bps

+22bps


FORWARD







3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.85

3.65

3.53

4.04

Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

7.20

7.08

6.51

6.54

Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.71

5.36

5.04

5.84

Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices




**************************************************************




Reporting by Karol Badohal and Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw, Anita Komuves in Budapest, and Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Alex Richardson and Barbara Lewis

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets: All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/ Spot FX rates Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX= Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX= Other news and reports World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
</body></html>

면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.

온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.

이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.

리스크 경고: 고객님의 자본이 위험에 노출 될 수 있습니다. 레버리지 상품은 모든 분들에게 적합하지 않을수 있습니다. 당사의 리스크 공시를 참고하시기 바랍니다.