BOJ faces fresh challenge as politics, yen complicate rate hikes
New premier Ishiba's remarks cast doubt on BOJ's rate hike plans
Political uncertainty, yen may prompt BOJ to hold fire for now
BOJ ended negative rates in March in historic shift
By Leika Kihara
TOKYO, Oct 4 (Reuters) -Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's efforts to lift rock-bottom borrowing costs face fresh challenges as a yen rebound and the new political leadership's preference for loose monetary policy raise the hurdle for rate hikes.
New Japanese premier Shigeru Ishiba stunned markets this week when he said the economy was not ready for further rate hikes, an apparent about-face from his previous support for the BOJ unwinding decades of extreme monetary stimulus.
The surprisingly blunt remarks pushed the yen lower against the dollar and cast fresh doubts over how aggressive the BOJ would be in raising rates.
While politics is unlikely to derail the longer-term case for rate hikes, analysts say policy deliberations could get bumpy heading into a general election due Oct. 27.
"I don't think the remarks were intended to apply huge pressure on the BOJ. Rather, Ishiba probably had the election in mind," said Katsuhiro Oshima, chief economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. "He was seen by markets as a hawk, so may have wanted to fine-tune that image a little bit."
The looming election this month means many analysts expect the BOJ will hold off raising rates at its Oct. 30-31 meeting.
Ueda was appointed last year by former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who stepped down in September and had endorsed the BOJ's exit from its radical monetary stimulus.
The BOJ in March delivered its first rate hike in 17 years, arguing the pace of price and wage increases showed Japan was finally shaking its entrenched deflationary mindset.
The bold shift to a tightening bias, however, hit a snag this week with Ishiba's new cabinet reaffirming with the BOJ a 2013 statement that commits both sides to focus on reflating a stagnant economy.
To be sure, pressure for the BOJ to immediately hike rates again this year had already eased ahead of Ishiba taking office, thanks in part to a rebound in the yen off a three-decade low hit in July, which moderates inflationary pressure from import costs.
Predicting the political clouds, the BOJ has already laid the groundwork to pause. After keeping rates steady last month, Ueda signaled that the BOJ is in no rush to hike with markets still unstable and U.S. economic uncertainties heightening.
"They won't directly affect monetary policy," said a source familiar with the BOJ's thinking, on Ishiba's remarks. "But there's also no need for the BOJ to hike rates when so much is going on," the source said, a view echoed by another source.
POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY MAY CONTINUE
Having ended negative interest rates in March and raised them again in July, Ueda said the BOJ would keep lifting rates to levels that neither cool nor overheat growth - seen by analysts as somewhere around 1-1.5% - if the economy moves in line with forecasts.
With inflation exceeding 2% for well over two years and a tight labour market pushing up wages, pausing for too long could cause communication problems.
However, with the potential for political curve balls heading into the election, the BOJ may use overseas risks, such as a slowing U.S. economy, as an argument for not raising rates straight away.
Such a messaging tweak could help avoid market perceptions the BOJ was abandoning its tightening bias altogether.
"It's essential for the BOJ to make efforts to improve its communication to avoid unnecessary confusion with its policy shift," BOJ board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday, in unusually candid remarks acknowledging problems in the way the central bank communicated with markets.
There is also uncertainty on whether Ishiba would revert to his endorsement of a BOJ exit once the election is out of the way - as many policymakers and analysts expect.
Ishiba's approval ratings stood at 50.7% in a poll by Kyodo news agency conducted on Oct. 1-2, lower than the debut ratings of the previous three administrations, suggesting a tough battle in the election.
While Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is likely to stay in power, a significant loss of seats could weaken his standing within the party, and keep him under pressure to heed calls for loose fiscal and monetary policy, analysts say.
Depending on this month's lower house election outcome, political uncertainty may continue until the upper house election set to be held in summer next year.
"If Ishiba wins solidly at this month's election and the political situation stabilises, the BOJ could raise rates in December or January," said Shigeto Nagai, head of Japan economics at Oxford Economics.
"If the political turmoil drags on, that could unravel the BOJ's strategy to hike rates up to around 0.75% next year," he said. "At heart, the BOJ probably wants to move swiftly."
Reporting by Leika Kihara; additional reporting by Makiko Yamazaki and Takaya Yamaguchi; Editing by Sam Holmes
면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.
온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.
이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.
