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US natgas set for 6th straight weekly gain on worries over tighter supplies



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Oct 4 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures eased on Friday, but looked still set for their sixth straight weekly gain on worries over tighter supplies due to a decline in output and as the latest federal report showed utilities added smaller-than-normal amount of gas into storage last week.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 6.5 cents, or 2.2%, to $2.91 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:48 a.m. EDT (1348 GMT). The contract has gained 0.2% so far for the week after prices hit their highest level since mid-June at $3.019 this week.

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday said utilities added 55 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage in the week ended Sept. 27 which was below the build of 57 bcf that analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll. That compares with an with an injection of 87 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2019-2023) average increase of 98 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

"Supplies going into the winter season are coming in lower than previous expectations, that's raising some hopes in the industry that has been hurt by low prices that there could be some light on the horizon " said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

The front-month contract has gained about 60% since late August, mainly due to a drop in the amount of fuel going into storage for the 2024-2025 winter heating season.

Storage injections in July, August and likely in September were at record lows, according to federal energy data going back to 1997.

That's because many producers reduced their drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. They have remained relatively low since that time.

"With the market apparently focused on end of season storage that could offer a surplus of only around 4% against the averages, current fundamental developments of a bearish nature are apt to be overshadowed by supportive items such as production that is still being downsized at about 100 bcf/d while LNG export prospects are expected to lift by next week," energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has fallen to an average of 101.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

Financial firm LSEG estimated 142 total degree days (TDDs) over the next two weeks, higher than the 141 estimated on Thursday. Average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, was seen at 95.6 billion cubic feet (bcfd) this week and 95.4 bcfd next week, LSEG forecast.

"Natural gas is also getting a boost from the delay of the Longshoreman strike. There was a lot of concern that natural gas demand could have plummeted had the strike continued for a period of time on fears that factories would shut down production of petrochemicals and plastics, so the market is getting a bullish relief," Flynn added.

U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports began reopening late on Thursday after dockworkers and port operators reached a wage deal to settle the industry's biggest work stoppage in nearly half a century, but clearing the cargo backlog will take time.

Meanwhile, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were largely flat on Friday morning, after rising on Thursday afternoon, as lower demand and stable supply were expected. NG/EU

Week ended Oct. 4 Forecast

Week ended Sep 27 Actual

Year ago Sep 27

Five-year average

Sep 27


U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+68

+55

+87

+98


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,615

3,547

3,420

3,357


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

4.7%

5.7%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.97

2.95

3.15

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

12.94

12.52

14.55

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

13.09

13.09

16.30

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

61

57

97

96

106

U.S. GFS CDDs

81

84

47

62

55

U.S. GFS TDDs

142

141

144

158

161

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

101.8

101.2

101.3

102.3

96.8

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.9

7.5

7.4

N/A

7.1

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

109.7

108.7

108.7

N/A

103.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.9

2.0

2.0

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.2

6.6

6.6

N/A

5.9

U.S. LNG Exports

12.3

12.5

13.3

12.7

10.0

U.S. Commercial

4.8

5.3

5.8

5.0

6.9

U.S. Residential

4.0

4.7

5.7

4.2

7.3

U.S. Power Plant

40.2

35.4

32.7

35.4

30.9

U.S. Industrial

21.9

22.0

22.2

21.7

22.3

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

78.1

74.4

74.3

73.4

74.5

Total U.S. Demand

98.5

95.6

95.4

N/A

92.7

N/A is Not Available












U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast

2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023 % of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

93

94

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

88

89

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

91

92

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Oct 4

Week ended Sep 27

2023

2022

2021

Wind

8

7

10

11

10

Solar

6

5

4

3

3

Hydro

5

5

6

6

7

Other

2

1

2

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

44

46

41

38

37

Coal

16

18

17

21

23

Nuclear

18

18

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.75

2.77


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.56

1.43


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

4.58

4.25


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.52

1.45


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.40

2.54


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.74

1.62


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

3.55

3.80


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

1.96

1.65




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.66

0.37



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

37.50

33.25



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

46.50

42.75



Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

37.00

31.50


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

46.67

68.25




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

46.75

63.50


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

42.00

61.50




Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Swati Verma in Bengaluru

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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