Passed the peak? China's crude oil imports trend down: Russell
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
By Clyde Russell
LAUNCESTON, Australia, Aug 22 (Reuters) -Is it time to ask whether China's crude oil imports have peaked?
The world's biggest oil importer brought in record volumes last year, a feat that seems unlikely to be repeated in 2024 given the decline in arrivals in the first seven months.
The market consensus so far, though, is that the weakness in 2024 is temporary and China's import of crude oil will resume an upward trend as soon as the world's second-largest economy regains momentum.
But what if there are structural changes to China's oil demand that could alter the trajectory of its fuel consumption going forward?
PARADIGM SHIFT?
China's oil imports rose for 19 straight years from 2001, when they were just 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), to 2020 when they hit 10.85 million bpd, the second-highest total on record.
While volumes then declined for two years, largely due to China's strict Covid-19 lockdown measures, crude imports hit an all-time high of 11.29 million bpd in 2023.
But in the first seven months of 2024, arrivals fell to 10.90 million barrels per day (bpd), some 320,000 bpd below the level for the same period last year.
This weakness has likely been driven, in part, by several structural changes altering the dynamics of China's fuel consumption.
These factors and a few other burgeoning structural changes have the potential to curtail the rise of China's crude oil imports now and for the foreseeable future.
KEY DRIVER
Perhaps the biggest factor that may weigh on crude oil imports in 2024 and the coming years is China's transition to what it calls new energy vehicles (NEVs), which include fully electric cars and trucks and hybrids.
Sales of passenger car NEVs exceeded those with internal combustion engines (ICE) in July for the first time, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
Sales of passenger NEVs in July were 853,000, representing 53.5% of total auto sales of 1.595 million.
China is also encouraging consumers to switch from older, less efficient vehicles to NEVs or more efficient ICE cars. This month Beijing announced an enhanced trade-in programme that will offer payments of 20,000 yuan ($2,805) to anyone scrapping an older car and replacing it with an NEV.
This subsidy is designed to remove more gasoline and diesel cars from the road and replace them largely with electric vehicles, of which China is the world's largest producer.
LNG HITS DIESEL
China's diesel demand is also softening. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that it dropped by 11% in June from the same month in 2023 to 3.9 million bpd.
This is due to two factors: the slowdown in construction and the switch to LNG in trucks.
While it's possible that construction, and China's economic activity more generally, may recover in the coming months, it's also likely that the trend towards using LNG in trucks will accelerate.
Last year 8% of road diesel demand, or about 220,000 bpd, was displaced by LNG, according to a report by consultants Wood Mackenzie.
The move to LNG trucks has been sped up by the decline in LNG prices at a time when diesel prices have been kept relatively high by elevated oil prices, supported by output cuts from major exporters in the OPEC+ group.
LIMITING FACTORS
China may also wind back the purchase of crude oil for strategic stockpiles in coming years, given the market view that the country has reached or is near its desired target for these reserves.
China is also building fewer new refineries in line with Beijing's plan to cap capacity at 20 million bpd, compared with existing capacity of around 18.5 million bpd.
Refineries are already struggling to use their capacity efficiently, with only 13.91 million bpd processed in July, the lowest volume since October 2022.
For the first seven months of the year, refineries processed 14.37 million bpd, down 1.2% from the same period in 2023.
Another factor likely to limit future imports is China's domestic oil production, if the country is successful in maintaining or increasing this activity.
Domestic oil production rose by 2.1% over the January to July period to 4.28 million bpd. While this is a modest gain, it shows that some imports are being displaced.
It should also be noted that Beijing is likely very keen to lower crude imports, partly to cut its import bill, but also to lessen reliance on imported fuel that has historically been subject to sharp price swings and threats of supply disruptions.
China would rather move rapidly to using electricity in its transport system, even if a majority of that power is generated from more polluting coal.
OTHER SIDE OF THE SCALE
It's clear that there are several factors that may limit the need for rising crude imports, but are there any that point to increased oil demand?
The strongest is the potential for China's economic growth to accelerate markedly, which would thereby boost diesel demand for transport, manufacturing and construction.
China's refineries could also secure higher quotas to export refined products and lift crude imports to boost fuel output.
But, importantly, the trends that could potentially boost crude imports are largely speculative. The factors limiting the need for additional crude imports are already in place and likely to accelerate.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
GRAPHIC-China crude oil imports vs domestic output https://tmsnrt.rs/3T2En3p
Editing by Anna Szymanski and Tom Hogue
면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.
온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.
이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.
