Zloty slips as Polish inflation rises less than expected
WARSAW, July 31 (Reuters) -The zloty eased on Wednesday, as data showed inflation in Poland rising less than expected in July, though according to analysts the prospects were not higher for interest rate cuts.
Poland's CPI accelerated to 4.2% on the year in July from 2.6% a month earlier, according to Wednesday's flash estimate, mainly due to the effect of the government partially withdrawing measures aimed at keeping down energy prices.
Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected July inflation to rise 4.4% on the year.
Earlier this month, the National Bank of Poland (NBP), which aims for inflation at 2.5% with a tolerance band of plus or minus 1 percentage point, kept Poland's main interest rate unchanged for a ninth month and governor Adam Glapinski said that elevated inflation spelled steady rates till 2026.
By 0950, the Polish zloty EURPLN= weakened 0.1% against the euro to 4.2950, near the lower end of its narrow range since mid-July, but remains Central Europe's best performing currency this year, gaining over 1%.
"The market might think that a lower (than expected) inflation reading brings interest rate cuts closer, but that will not be the case," Ipopema Securities analyst Marcin Sulewski said.
"Inflation in July was lower than expected, but it will rise in the coming months... As NBP governor Glapinski says, if inflation is rising, you cannot lower interest rates," Sulewski added.
The Hungarian forint EURHUF= eased 0.1% to 395.50 per euro. It continued to slip after the worse-than-expected economic output reading on Tuesday, according to a Budapest-based currency trader.
Weak foreign demand held back Hungary's economy in the second quarter, with gross domestic product (GDP) falling on a quarterly basis for the first time in more than a year.
The Hungarian currency is the region's weakest performer this year, shedding 3% against the euro.
The Czech crown EURCZK= which has also lost 3% to the euro this year, eased 0.1% to 25.4460 per euro on Wednesday in the run-up to Thursday's expected interest rate cut by the Czech National Bank (CNB).
The CNB is widely expected to slow the pace of easing on Thursday, with all analysts in a Reuters poll forecasting a 25-basis point cut, as it opts for caution with inflation risks still in view and the crown weaker than expected.
"While market analysts are unanimously expecting reduction in the pace of rate cuts to 25bp per step, the market may still see some risk that the Czech central bank could repeat a rate cut by 50bp," chief economist at Generali Investments CEE Radomir Jac said.
"Weakening of the Czech crown, seen in the past weeks, was to a large extent related to a sharper than expected rate cut delivered by the CNB at the end of June."
Last month, the CNB cut its key rate by 50 basis points, on the sharper end of expectations, but signalled a likely slowdown in the pace of easing amid lingering inflation pressures.
Jac added that today's weakening of the crown was in line with that of its regional peers.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1151 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.4460 | 25.4310 | -0.06% | -2.93% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 395.5000 | 395.2700 | -0.06% | -3.11% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2950 | 4.2910 | -0.09% | +1.15% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9753 | 4.9763 | +0.02% | -0.02% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9800 | 117.0800 | +0.09% | +0.23% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1608.76 | 1598.7400 | +0.63% | +13.77% |
Budapest | .BUX | 73855.86 | 73475.88 | +0.52% | +21.83% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2419.55 | 2384.77 | +1.46% | +3.27% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 18623.41 | 18534.75 | +0.48% | +21.16% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.5560 | 0.0020 | +102bps | +2bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.5420 | -0.0390 | +129bps | -3bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.7200 | 0.0070 | +139bps | +2bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.9990 | -0.0080 | +246bps | +1bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.3220 | -0.1140 | +307bps | -10bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.5160 | -0.0610 | +319bps | -5bps |
FORWARD | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 4.00 | 3.63 | 3.30 | 4.53 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.12 | 5.76 | 5.36 | 6.56 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.80 | 5.66 | 5.31 | 5.86 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** |
Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw, Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest; Editing by Bernadette Baum
For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/
Spot FX rates
Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX=
Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX=
Other news and reports
World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE
Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY
Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
면책조항: XM Group 회사는 체결 전용 서비스와 온라인 거래 플랫폼에 대한 접근을 제공하여, 개인이 웹사이트에서 또는 웹사이트를 통해 이용 가능한 콘텐츠를 보거나 사용할 수 있도록 허용합니다. 이에 대해 변경하거나 확장할 의도는 없습니다. 이러한 접근 및 사용에는 다음 사항이 항상 적용됩니다: (i) 이용 약관, (ii) 위험 경고, (iii) 완전 면책조항. 따라서, 이러한 콘텐츠는 일반적인 정보에 불과합니다. 특히, 온라인 거래 플랫폼의 콘텐츠는 금융 시장에서의 거래에 대한 권유나 제안이 아닙니다. 금융 시장에서의 거래는 자본에 상당한 위험을 수반합니다.
온라인 거래 플랫폼에 공개된 모든 자료는 교육/정보 목적으로만 제공되며, 금융, 투자세 또는 거래 조언 및 권고, 거래 가격 기록, 금융 상품 또는 원치 않는 금융 프로모션의 거래 제안 또는 권유를 포함하지 않으며, 포함해서도 안됩니다.
이 웹사이트에 포함된 모든 의견, 뉴스, 리서치, 분석, 가격, 기타 정보 또는 제3자 사이트에 대한 링크와 같이 XM이 준비하는 콘텐츠 뿐만 아니라, 제3자 콘텐츠는 일반 시장 논평으로서 "현재" 기준으로 제공되며, 투자 조언으로 여겨지지 않습니다. 모든 콘텐츠가 투자 리서치로 해석되는 경우, 투자 리서치의 독립성을 촉진하기 위해 고안된 법적 요건에 따라 콘텐츠가 의도되지 않았으며, 준비되지 않았다는 점을 인지하고 동의해야 합니다. 따라서, 관련 법률 및 규정에 따른 마케팅 커뮤니케이션이라고 간주됩니다. 여기에서 접근할 수 있는 앞서 언급한 정보에 대한 비독립 투자 리서치 및 위험 경고 알림을 읽고, 이해하시기 바랍니다.