Yuan higher as Harris narrowly leads US presidential race

Reuters

Yuan higher as Harris narrowly leads US presidential race

2024 9월 11 일, 오전 3:17 GMT

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SINGAPORE, Sept 11 (Reuters) -China's currency ticked higher on Wednesday, in part as investors pared back Donald Trump's chances of winning the U.S. presidency and with it chances of more tariffs on Chinese goods.

As Republican candidate Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris clashed in a combative televised debate the yuan CNY=CFXS climbed a bit less than 0.1% to 7.1127 per dollar.

On the PredicIt betting site, pricing for a Harris victory rose to 56 cents from 52 cents beforehand, while pricing for another Trump presidency fell to 49 cents from 51 cents.

Players on PredictIt make predictions by buying shares priced between 1 cent and 99 cents, with the price corresponding to market estimates of the probability of the outcome.

"Some of the U.S. dollar movement is driven by the debate performance," said Mizuho strategist Ken Cheung. "I think the interpretation, for the Chinese yuan, is that it is very sensitive to Trump's policy on the tariff side."

Trump has floated a blanket 10% import tariff and much higher levies on Chinese goods.

The yuan has had a rollercoaster few weeks. A fall in the dollar, in anticipation of U.S. interest rate cuts beginning next week, lifted the currency from the lower bound of its trading band to the middle, where it seems to have settled.

Prior to the market opening, the People's Bank of China set the midpoint rate CNY=PBOC, around which the yuan is allowed to trade in a 2% range, at 7.1182 per dollar. In offshore trade the yuan CNH=D3 was about 0.2% firmer at 7.1207 per dollar.

"The spot on fixing gap is so narrow now, which means the market is very much in a balanced situation," said Ju Wang, head of greater China currency and rates strategy at BNP Paribas.

"(Moves) depend on market supply demand and the overnight dollar index move and there is very minimal FX intervention at the moment. So this level definitely in (authorities') comfort zone."

Chinese government 10-year bond yields CN10YT=RR fell 0.5 basis points to 2.13% and 30-year yields CN30YT=RR hovered near record lows. China Construction Bank said yields will likely fall further due to a weaker than expected economy.

Data this week has shown exports solid but imports sluggish and consumer price rises falling short of market expectations, pointing to lacklustre domestic demand.

The dollar's six-currency index =USD was 0.17% lower at 101.47. FRX/

Key onshore vs offshore levels:

Overnight dollar/yuan swap onshore -7.30 pips vs. offshore -7.30
Three-month SHIBOR SHIBOR= 1.9% vs. 3-month CNH HIBOR 1.8%

LEVELS AT 03:00 GMT

INSTRUMENT	CURRENT vs USD	UP/DOWN(-) VS. PREVIOUS CLOSE %	% CHANGE YR-TO-DATE	DAY'S HIGH	DAY'S LOW
Spot yuan <CNY=CFXS	7.1168	0.06	-0.2	7.1127	7.1233
Offshore yuan spot CNH=D3	7.1215	0.2	0.06	7.1157	7.1366